Michigan’s largest estimated spring turkey harvest in 2024 was in Saginaw County, with 1,297 birds. Across the 23 seasons with county estimates, Allegan County has led in 8. Michigan does not use check stations to count harvested turkeys. The state’s Department of Natural Resources (DNR) estimates harvest by surveying license buyers and scaling up their responses. Each county estimate has a margin of error. The margins for the counties ranked first and fifteenth overlap. Adding up the estimates gives a statewide harvest of 37,339 for 2024, about 10% higher than 2023 and 4,661 lower than the 2008 peak.
KEY FINDINGS
- The margin on Saginaw's estimate of 1,297 is 336; for Allegan's 1,245, it is 319. Their difference of 52 birds falls comfortably within both margins.
- Among 23 seasons offering county estimates, Allegan led 8 times, compared with 6 for Montcalm and 4 for Kent. Saginaw has led only in 2024.
- Adding up the estimates gives a statewide total of 37,339 for 2024. That is 3,414 birds, or 10.1%, higher than 2023’s 33,925 and 4,661 lower than the 2008 peak of 42,000.
- Between 2022 and 2024, estimates increased in 55 counties out of 83; the remaining 28 declined.
IThe 2024 table
A 52-bird edge puts Saginaw first
For the spring season in 2024, the DNR hunter survey estimates Saginaw County's harvest at 1,297 turkeys, placing it first. Allegan County ranks second with 1,245. Next come Ottawa at 1,166, Montcalm at 1,103 and Kent at 1,090. The fifteen counties shown below include estimates for 2022 and averages spanning 2019 to 2022. Those averages use the four previous seasons offering county figures.
Swipe table to see every column
| Rank | County | 2022 | 2024 | 2019 to 2022 avg |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Saginaw County | 848 | 1,297 | 895 |
| 2 | Allegan County | 987 | 1,245 | 1,203 |
| 3 | Ottawa County | 744 | 1,166 | 830 |
| 4 | Montcalm County | 821 | 1,103 | 813 |
| 5 | Kent County | 897 | 1,090 | 1,015 |
| 6 | Lapeer County | 931 | 1,021 | 1,046 |
| 7 | St. Clair County | 937 | 1,002 | 822 |
| 8 | Van Buren County | 573 | 951 | 587 |
| 9 | Newaygo County | 831 | 917 | 818 |
| 10 | Jackson County | 648 | 910 | 874 |
| 11 | Hillsdale County | 494 | 873 | 578 |
| 12 | Sanilac County | 589 | 869 | 824 |
| 13 | Tuscola County | 1,111 | 866 | 1,024 |
| 14 | Ingham County | 508 | 823 | 562 |
| 15 | Shiawassee County | 750 | 769 | 708 |
Compared with its average of 895, Saginaw's estimate of 1,297 was higher by 402, making this a strong spring for that county. Van Buren County also finished well above its average (951 versus 587), as did Hillsdale (873 versus 578) and Ingham (823 versus 562). Tuscola declined instead, with 866 compared with 1,111 in 2022. Of Michigan's 83 counties, 55 had higher estimates in 2024 than in 2022, while 28 had lower ones. The ten highest counties together make up 28.7% of the estimated statewide harvest.
IIInside the margin
Under DNR rules, the leader ties the county ranked fifteenth
The DNR lists a 95% margin with each county estimate. For the top 15 counties, those margins range from 248 to 336 birds. Saginaw has an estimate of 1,297 and a margin of 336, giving a range of 961 to 1,633. Allegan has an estimate of 1,245 with a margin of 319, giving a range of 926 to 1,564. The DNR requires the intervals around two estimates to have no overlap before treating the difference as established. Under that rule, this comparison does not establish a harvest difference between Saginaw and Allegan. It also does not establish a harvest difference between Saginaw and Shiawassee, in 15th place. Shiawassee's estimate of 769 has a margin of 260, bringing its upper limit to 1,029, above Saginaw's lower limit of 961.
The report provides hunting effort for each leader as well. Allegan's estimates of 2,816 hunters afield and 9,856 days afield were both county highs. For Saginaw, 2,135 hunters accounted for 8,225 days afield. Hunter success there reached 61%, compared with 44% in Allegan. Greater participation in Allegan and higher success in Saginaw leave their estimated harvests just 52 birds apart.
IIIEight of 23
Allegan over the years
Ranking counties from a lone survey season gives a weak picture, so we count how often each led as well. County estimates exist for 23 Michigan seasons spanning 2001 to 2024. Seven counties have held the lead at least once: Allegan in 8 of the 23 seasons, Montcalm in 6, Kent in 4, Newaygo in 2, and Saginaw, Lapeer and Tuscola in 1 apiece.
Swipe table to see every column
| Rank | County | Total 2015 to 2024 | Seasons ranked #1 |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Allegan County | 10,284 | 5 |
| 2 | Tuscola County | 8,783 | 1 |
| 3 | Kent County | 8,621 | 0 |
| 4 | Lapeer County | 8,319 | 1 |
| 5 | Montcalm County | 8,169 | 1 |
| 6 | Jackson County | 7,963 | 0 |
| 7 | Ottawa County | 7,521 | 0 |
| 8 | Newaygo County | 7,417 | 0 |
| 9 | Saginaw County | 7,382 | 1 |
| 10 | Sanilac County | 7,177 | 0 |
Across the nine seasons offering county figures within 2015 to 2024, Allegan's combined estimated harvest was 10,284. It exceeded runner-up Tuscola's 8,783 by 1,501 and led in five seasons. With 8,621, Kent placed third in combined harvest even though it never led during that window. A county can therefore remain among the leaders across years while seldom finishing first. Allegan attracted the largest number of hunters in 2024 too, so its history may reflect the amount of hunting as much as the size of the flock. The survey cannot tell those effects apart.
IVThe state line
Still below 2008, about 10% higher than 2023
The highest statewide estimate for Michigan was 42,000 in 2008. It hit 41,770 during 2020, while the lowest was 29,107 in 2014. At 37,339, the 2024 estimate is short of that high by 4,661. For 2023, the DNR released regional figures but did not publish a county table. That year's chart value therefore comes from adding the regional totals: 33,925. Subtracting it from the following year's value gives a difference of 3,414 between 37,339 and 33,925; dividing 3,414 by 33,925 yields 10.1%. In the DNR report, the increase is described as 10%, with 33,925 as the starting estimate and 37,341 as the ending estimate. Comparing 2024 with 2022, the preceding season for which county figures are available, gives a 15.0% increase (37,339 versus 32,463).
According to the report, 78,097 hunters were afield during 2024, compared with 74,244 previously. Days afield dropped 7.5%, ending at 303,354 compared with the previous 327,826. The DNR interprets that combination as improved conditions or greater efficiency. A survey based on hunters' accounts of their actions cannot test that explanation.
VEstimates, not counts
Building the county estimates
When the season closes, the DNR sends license buyers a questionnaire by email, then mails a paper version to a randomly selected group of buyers who did not respond. It uses the replies to estimate results for all 98,946 license buyers. The agency received 5,190 mailed forms back in 2024, for an adjusted response rate of 35%. The report cautions that avid hunters may reply more often, and the estimates do not account for that possibility. Estimates for small totals carry the most uncertainty. Alger County has an estimate of 80 birds and a margin of 106; Ontonagon County has an estimate of 141 birds and a margin of 133.
The county figures we present for 2024 agree with Table 6 in the DNR's report. Adding up the estimates gives our statewide total of 37,339, which is two lower than the DNR’s rounded figure of 37,341. In its text, the report lists 42,002 for 2008 and 41,772 for 2020. Those figures are each two higher than our totals of 42,000 and 41,770. County harvest estimates increase with the number of hunters and the size of the county. We have not adjusted the figures here for either factor.
VIReading the margin
Use 2024 to group counties, then check their history
Rather than assigning ranks, use the table for 2024 to group about fifteen counties into a tier. Among the ten leaders for 2024, eight also belong to the top ten across 2015 to 2024: Allegan, Kent, Jackson, Saginaw, Montcalm, Ottawa, Newaygo and Lapeer. Only the 2024 list includes Van Buren and St. Clair; only the list covering 2015 to 2024 includes Tuscola and Sanilac. If the intervals for a pair of counties overlap, regard their estimates as indistinguishable for this comparison. Let access decide which to choose.
Your next move comes down to access. The DNR estimates that private ground supplied 90% of the harvest in 2024. Once you have chosen a tier, ask whose land you can get onto. Michigan also combines registration and survey information for its deer figures. Our paper about Michigan's reporting gap compares those two sources.
NOTES AND SOURCES
- Source: <em>2024 Michigan Spring Turkey Harvest Report</em> from Michigan DNR, using a Michigan news outlet's hosted PDF copy.
- Hunter participation, available access and county size shape county totals alongside turkey numbers.
- No county-area adjustment is applied to these totals.
- Michigan estimates these figures through a hunter survey after the season rather than counting birds at check stations. Error bars are wide for small counties.
- Only regional totals appear in the DNR report for 2023, leaving 2023 without county estimates. For 2024, our statewide sum is 37,339, two fewer birds than the agency's rounded estimate of 37,341.
Fully Drawn Research is an independent data analysis desk, not affiliated with any state wildlife agency, transportation agency, mapping provider or outfitter. Fully Drawn Research is an independent data and analysis desk. This paper reports FDR's analysis of public agency data. Harvest figures describe animals reported or estimated as harvested, not population size, and reflect hunter effort and regulations as well as animal numbers.
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