In the 11 Michigan port areas on Lake Huron the DNR surveyed every season from 1992 to 2021, chinook kept dropped 94% between 1994 to 2003 and 2012 to 2021. Walleye moved in the opposite direction. Anglers kept 61,124 a season in the early decade compared with 163,191 in the recent one, or 2.7 times as many. Saginaw Bay and the Saginaw River supplied 97.8% of the walleye kept at those ports from 2012 to 2021.
ISalmon Shift
Chinook Kept Dropped 94% and Nearly Vanished at Three Shore Ports
These are Michigan DNR creel estimates of fish every angler kept at each port, whatever they were fishing for. The U.S. Geological Survey's CreelCat catalog holds the counts and links to the agency's own open creel survey data for monthly detail. Michigan surveys did not record released fish in the early years, leaving kept fish as the one count available for the whole series. CreelCat includes 38 Michigan port areas on Lake Huron, with 15 to 32 surveyed each season from 1992 to 2021. Keeping the same 11 makes every comparison cover the same water.
From 1994 to 2003 Rogers City, Harbor Beach, Lexington and Port Sanilac supplied 77.4% of all chinook kept at the 11 port areas. Chinook kept nearly disappeared at three of those ports. Harbor Beach dropped from 10,270 chinook kept a season to 160, Lexington from 4,950 to 80 and Port Sanilac from 4,640 to 130. Rogers City fared best of the four but chinook kept still fell from 12,580 a season to 2,020. Kept counts show what anglers brought home and cannot tell us how many chinook were in the water.
The decline was quick. The 11 ports had 48,205 chinook kept in 2003, 27,377 in 2004 and 6,692 in 2005. Every season from 2006 to 2021 stayed below 2005.
- Walleye kept
- Chinook kept
Swipe table to see every column
| Measure | 1994 to 2003 | 2012 to 2021 | Change % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chinook kept a year | 41,881 | 2,450 | -94.2 |
| Walleye kept a year | 61,124 | 163,191 | +167 |
| Yellow perch kept a year | 1,046,066 | 183,412 | -82.5 |
| Lake trout kept a year | 17,260 | 8,394 | -51.4 |
| Angler hours a year | 1,709,791 | 742,722 | -56.6 |
| Chinook kept per 1,000 hours | 24.5 | 3.3 | -86.5 |
| Walleye kept per 1,000 hours | 35.7 | 219.7 | +515.4 |
IIRemaining Kings
Rogers City Led Chinook Kept Every Season From 2012 to 2021
Rogers City led every Michigan port area on Lake Huron in chinook kept in each of the 10 seasons from 2012 to 2021, among 22 to 32 port areas surveyed a season. Among the 26 port areas surveyed in at least five of those seasons, the Cheboygan River came next at 440 chinook a season over six seasons. Detour averaged 410 chinook a season, Cheboygan 370 and St. Ignace 340.
Rogers City averaged 64.2 chinook kept per 1,000 hours of all fishing from 2012 to 2021, compared with 120.5 in 1994 to 2003. St. Ignace had a higher rate at 76.9 with far less fishing. St. Ignace averaged about 4,800 angler hours a season against 31,500 at Rogers City. Those rates include every angler at the port, so they do not give a salmon angler's own rate.
Swipe table to see every column
| Port area | Seasons surveyed of 10 | Chinook kept a season | Angler hours a season | Chinook per 1,000 hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogers City | 10 | 2,020 | 31,500 | 64.2 |
| Cheboygan River | 6 | 440 | 24,700 | 17.8 |
| Detour | 9 | 410 | 11,900 | 34.1 |
| Cheboygan | 8 | 370 | 9,700 | 38.4 |
| St. Ignace | 9 | 340 | 4,800 | 76.9 |
| Presque Isle | 5 | 260 | 14,700 | 17.8 |
IIIWalleye Water
Pinconning-Linwood and Au Gres Reached the Top 3 Nearly Every Season
Walleye here are Saginaw Bay fish. Walleye kept at Pinconning and Linwood climbed from 16,700 a season to 45,510 and at Au Gres from 13,860 to 38,980. Among all Michigan port areas on Lake Huron, Pinconning and Linwood led walleye kept in 6 of the 10 seasons from 2012 to 2021 and reached the top 3 in 9. Au Gres reached the top 3 in all 10 seasons. Harbor Beach alone built a real walleye catch among the four open-shore ports in the 11. Its walleye kept climbed from 550 a season to 2,950.
Yellow perch kept dropped 82.5% to 183,412 a season but still outnumbered the 163,191 walleye.
Fishing at the 11 ports averaged 1,709,791 angler hours a season in the early decade and 742,722 in the recent one. Chinook kept per 1,000 hours of all fishing dropped from 24.5 to 3.3 while walleye kept rose from 35.7 to 219.7.
Swipe table to see every column
| Port area | Water | Chinook 1994-2003 | Chinook 2012-2021 | Walleye 1994-2003 | Walleye 2012-2021 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rogers City | Lake Huron shore | 12,580 | 2,020 | 20 | 150 |
| Harbor Beach | Lake Huron shore | 10,270 | 160 | 550 | 2,950 |
| Lexington | Lake Huron shore | 4,950 | 80 | 200 | 110 |
| Port Sanilac | Lake Huron shore | 4,640 | 130 | 100 | 340 |
| Saginaw Bay (Area From Sand Point To Port Austin) | Saginaw Bay or River | 6,090 | 10 | 6,740 | 3,690 |
| Saginaw Bay (Tawas) | Saginaw Bay or River | 2,990 | 40 | 1,420 | 1,680 |
| Saginaw Bay (Au Gres) | Saginaw Bay or River | 360 | 10 | 13,860 | 38,980 |
| Saginaw Bay (Area From Quanicassee To Wiscoggin Drain) | Saginaw Bay or River | 10 | 0 | 9,930 | 28,160 |
| Saginaw Bay (Pinconning, Linwood) | Saginaw Bay or River | 0 | 0 | 16,700 | 45,510 |
| Saginaw River (Area From Essexville To Finn Road) | Saginaw Bay or River | 0 | 0 | 3,350 | 22,750 |
| Saginaw Bay (Area Around Bay Shore Marina) | Saginaw Bay or River | 0 | 0 | 8,260 | 18,880 |
IVMissing Alewives
A DNR Biologist Linked Both Changes to the Alewife Loss
Michigan DNR fisheries research biologist Dave Fielder discussed the shift at the DNR's Lake Huron Citizens Fishery Advisory Committee in August 2024. The committee's minutes from the meeting lay out his points. For salmon the minutes quote him saying "With the crash of alewives in 2003, Chinook Salmon declined dramatically because of lack of food." For walleye the minutes quote him saying "The alewives also preyed on young walleyes so when the alewives essentially disappeared, the walleye population surged in 2003."
The minutes also record him going back another step to explain the alewife collapse. "The 1990s began a period when dreissenid mussels invaded Lake Huron, which contributed to the alewife population collapse." For bay perch the minutes quote him saying "The vast majority of the young yellow perch are eaten by the walleyes and other predators."
Those points come from Fielder as recorded in the committee minutes. The timing in the creel counts matches his account, with the steepest fall in chinook kept from 2003 to 2005. Walleye kept rose sharply starting in 2006 and reached a peak of 305,262 in 2009. Walleye kept then remained above the 1994 to 2003 average of 61,124 in every season to 2021 without climbing steadily. The creel data alone cannot test what caused the changes.
VCounting Kept Fish
Kept Counts Mix Catch With Keeping Choices, and Survey Coverage Shifted
A kept count combines the fish anglers caught with their choices about keeping them, and the early surveys cannot separate the two. Michigan DNR cut the Saginaw Bay walleye size limit to 13 inches in 2015. The minutes quote Fielder saying "In 2015 when we implemented the reduced 13-inch size limit, fewer were released." Walleye kept had already risen. At the 11 ports walleye kept averaged 207,963 a season from 2007 to 2014 and 160,970 from 2015 to 2021.
Surveys in all seven Saginaw Bay and River areas began in April in 1997 and left out the ice season. Surveys at Lexington and Port Sanilac began in January or February from 2009 to 2012 and at Harbor Beach in 2013.
Keeping a larger set of ports fixed leads to the same answer. Alpena and Oscoda each missed only 2016, and including both while leaving out 2016 puts chinook kept down 95.3% and walleye kept up 172.9%. Port areas are Michigan DNR survey zones rather than whole bays or counties, and each estimate has sampling error.
Swipe table to see every column
| Season | Chinook kept | Walleye kept | Yellow perch kept | Angler hours |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1,992 | 18,216 | 69,092 | 2,084,664 | 2,043,813 |
| 1,993 | 25,115 | 145,844 | 1,090,134 | 2,112,329 |
| 1,994 | 25,765 | 88,663 | 2,055,549 | 2,316,077 |
| 1,995 | 38,682 | 50,971 | 1,640,387 | 2,067,804 |
| 1,996 | 32,378 | 48,549 | 793,204 | 1,811,355 |
| 1,997 | 64,195 | 60,324 | 731,235 | 1,726,468 |
| 1,998 | 45,708 | 63,426 | 930,208 | 1,617,086 |
| 1,999 | 32,862 | 42,996 | 1,197,272 | 1,410,102 |
| 2,000 | 31,447 | 64,873 | 778,522 | 1,324,550 |
| 2,001 | 29,136 | 50,398 | 879,679 | 1,282,128 |
| 2,002 | 70,432 | 50,652 | 846,382 | 1,733,944 |
| 2,003 | 48,205 | 90,390 | 608,221 | 1,808,398 |
| 2,004 | 27,377 | 75,058 | 230,478 | 1,378,932 |
| 2,005 | 6,692 | 71,786 | 496,092 | 1,374,985 |
| 2,006 | 6,066 | 134,924 | 468,789 | 906,606 |
| 2,007 | 2,101 | 283,093 | 257,715 | 1,193,744 |
| 2,008 | 2,469 | 270,933 | 206,984 | 1,101,729 |
| 2,009 | 2,541 | 305,262 | 175,718 | 1,361,355 |
| 2,010 | 2,279 | 180,019 | 250,769 | 1,080,142 |
| 2,011 | 2,700 | 119,272 | 322,410 | 827,070 |
| 2,012 | 3,658 | 143,332 | 401,839 | 784,934 |
| 2,013 | 3,656 | 167,872 | 166,083 | 673,243 |
| 2,014 | 2,850 | 193,918 | 91,441 | 775,089 |
| 2,015 | 1,485 | 129,163 | 139,547 | 776,349 |
| 2,016 | 1,821 | 123,328 | 219,740 | 707,949 |
| 2,017 | 2,442 | 193,782 | 221,737 | 724,561 |
| 2,018 | 3,158 | 207,975 | 187,294 | 871,624 |
| 2,019 | 1,092 | 247,519 | 107,240 | 822,695 |
| 2,020 | 1,117 | 119,833 | 79,139 | 500,773 |
| 2,021 | 3,221 | 105,188 | 220,061 | 790,008 |
VILaunch Choice
Make Saginaw Bay Walleye the Focus at These Ports
Our read is that through 2021 walleye and perch carried these 11 port areas with salmon as a small sideline. For walleye the creel points toward Saginaw Bay, where Pinconning and Linwood led at 45,510 kept a season from 2012 to 2021 and Au Gres followed at 38,980. For chinook the creel points toward Rogers City, which led every other Michigan port area on Lake Huron in chinook kept in every season from 2012 to 2021. The series stops in 2021, so look at the DNR's latest creel estimates before building a trip around either port.
NOTES AND SOURCES
- Source: U.S. Geological Survey, The U.S. Inland Creel and Angler Survey Catalog (CreelCat), ScienceBase data release.
- Also: Michigan Department of Natural Resources, Lake Huron Citizens Fishery Advisory Committee minutes, August 26, 2024.
- Also: Michigan DNR creel survey open data (monthly estimates, the source CreelCat cites for these surveys).
- Scope: Michigan DNR open-water and winter creel surveys of Lake Huron ports and Saginaw Bay areas compiled in USGS CreelCat, one survey per port per year. The panel is the 11 port areas surveyed in every year from 1992 to 2021 (4 on the Lake Huron shore, 7 in Saginaw Bay and the Saginaw River). Eras compare the yearly average of 1994 to 2003 with 2012 to 2021, ten seasons each.
- Method: SAMPLED: fish kept (harvest) and angler hours are Michigan DNR expanded creel estimates. DERIVED: panel sums by year, ten-season averages, percent change from the rounded averages, and fish kept per 1,000 angler hours pooled over each era. Released fish are not used because Michigan surveys did not log releases in the early years.
- Limits: These are fish kept, not fish caught. Michigan surveys in the early years did not record released fish, so a change in how many fish anglers chose to keep shows up here the same way as a change in how many they caught.
- Limits: Season coverage was not identical every year. All seven Saginaw Bay and River areas started in April in 1997 and missed the ice season, Lexington and Port Sanilac started in January or February from 2009 to 2012 (Harbor Beach in 2013), and Lexington and Port Sanilac both started in June in 2020.
- Limits: The panel leaves out Alpena and Oscoda, which missed 2016, and Harrisville, which missed several recent seasons. Adding Alpena and Oscoda and dropping 2016 gives nearly the same result.
- Limits: Michigan DNR lowered the Saginaw Bay walleye size limit to 13 inches in 2015. Walleye kept at the panel ports averaged 207,963 a year from 2007 to 2014 and 160,970 from 2015 to 2021, so the rise came before that change.
- Limits: Creel estimates carry sampling error, and port boundaries are Michigan DNR survey areas, which are not whole counties or whole bays.
- Limits: Averages and changes are our arithmetic on agency estimates. They are a first pass and have not been peer reviewed.
Fully Drawn Research is an independent data analysis desk, not affiliated with any state wildlife agency, transportation agency, mapping provider or outfitter. Fully Drawn Research is an independent data and analysis desk. This paper reports FDR's own analysis of public agency and survey data. Harvest, catch and survey figures describe what hunters and anglers reported or what agencies counted or estimated, not how many animals or fish are present, and they reflect regulations and hunter or angler choices as well as wildlife numbers.
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