Working paperEvery stateNew

Deer Burn Fat All Winter and Food Controls the Pace

Southern rumen samples put hardened twigs at 2.4 to 4.8% of winter volume, and our NOAA-station analysis shows buck harvest dropped 8 to 15 points after the worst winters.

53%lower early-winter doe kidney fat after a failed acorn crop

In late winter a northern cedar swamp has cedar and hemlock that look picked over. On a southern ridge that same week the twigs look much less browsed. Measurements of rumen contents explain this regional contrast. Hardened twigs filled just 2.4 to 4.8% of winter rumen volume in 159 winter rumens from the Southern Appalachians, the Piedmont and the Coastal Plain. Harlow and Hooper gathered them from 1967 to 70 and presented the findings to the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies.

IWinter Food

Deer Burn Winter Fat at a Pace Set by Food

Our read is that fall food determines how much fat a deer brings into winter and that winter food and the length of snow cover determine how fast it burns. Our rule is to tally mast in September and deep-snow days in winter. Where feeding is legal, look at your state agency page before putting anything out.

Most diet figures below came from small samples gathered before 1990 so we name the year each time. A diet share measured elsewhere does not predict the diet on your ground.

IIRegional Food

Southern Deer Ate Evergreen Leaves and Wisconsin Deer Ate Corn

Leaves carry the southern winter diet. In that same study rosebay rhododendron filled 23.7% of winter rumen volume in the Southern Appalachians (80 rumens). Honeysuckle filled 38.0% on the Coastal Plain (33 rumens) and 26.3% in the Piedmont (46 rumens).

The menu changes in farm country. In a Wisconsin DNR research report Pils and colleagues measured corn kernels at 36% of winter rumen volume in 42 southern Wisconsin deer collected from 1976 to 80. Snow shifted that mix. In 11 rumens from February 1979 woody fragments filled 54% and corn filled 30%. In 10 rumens from February 1980 woody fragments dropped to 19% and corn climbed to 39%. The 1979 deer had been through the highest winter index in 30 years under the scale used then.

Conifers feed deer in Maine yards. In a 1982 Journal of Wildlife Management paper Crawford counted bites taken by 2 tame deer in January and February of 1977. Conifer foliage supplied about 52% of their intake and eastern hemlock shoots alone supplied 33.0%.

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Region and deerMain winter foodsMethod and sampleYears
Southern Appalachians, whitetailRosebay rhododendron 23.7%, acorns 13.9%, honeysuckle 9.4%% of rumen volume, 80 winter rumens1967 to 70
Piedmont, whitetailHoneysuckle 26.3%, grasses and sedges 32.3%, hardened twigs 4.7%% of rumen volume, 46 winter rumens1967 to 70
Coastal Plain, whitetailHoneysuckle 38.0%, acorns 20.6%, green leaves 48.9%% of rumen volume, 33 winter rumens1967 to 70
Southern Wisconsin farmland, whitetailCorn kernels 36%, woody fragments 30%% of rumen volume, 42 winter rumens, mostly road-kills1976 to 80
Central Maine yards, whitetailEastern hemlock shoots 33.0%, red maple twigs 11.1%, conifers combined about 52%Bite counts, % of intake by estimated weight, 2 tame deer, January and February1977
Northeastern Minnesota, whitetail wolf-killsNorthern white-cedar 52%, jack pine 8%% of rumen volume, 15 rumens, February1971
Northeastern Minnesota, whitetail that died in late winterBalsam fir 43%, pine 14%% of rumen volume, 51 rumens, several causes of death1936 to 37
South Texas Coastal Bend, whitetailForbs 68%, grasses 22%, browse 5%Rumen point analysis, 50 deer, January to May1963
Western Montana, mule deerDouglas-fir 23.6 to 61.2% of plant DNA readsFecal DNA, 136 winter samples, 3 ranges. Read share is not diet weight2017 to 19
Winter diet shares by region from rumen, bite-count and fecal DNA studies. Methods and eras differ, so compare rows only loosely and never average across them. Sources: Harlow and Hooper, Pils and colleagues, Crawford, the Forest Service northeastern Minnesota review (NC-65), Chamrad and Box and the Montana wildlife agency report (SAMPLED).

Our test for your ground is to mark 20 twig tips on preferred browse in December and count them again in March. That second count shows whether deer on your ground are browsing twigs or getting by on leaves and litter.

IIIYard Diets

Northern White-Cedar Topped Wolf-Kill Rumens While Balsam Fir Topped Late-Winter Carcass Rumens

Northern snow crowds deer into winter yards. A Forest Service report about Minnesota deer records about 400 deer spending winter on 10.4 square miles (27 km²) at Isabella in the Superior National Forest. Late-March snow below 7 inches (18 cm) at two smaller yards lined up with signs of recovery while 14 inches (36 cm) at Isabella continued to limit feeding.

Cedar leads in the rumen samples. A Forest Service review about northeastern Minnesota deer records northern white-cedar at 52% of rumen volume in 15 wolf-killed deer from February 1971. Balsam fir filled 43% of volume in 51 rumens from deer that died from several causes in late winter 1936 to 37. Rumens from dead deer make a biased sample and these series used different methods in different eras.

Lab results point the other way. In the journal Rangifer Applegate and Gray tested Maine twigs gathered at one site in February 1990 and measured 7.2% crude protein in balsam fir against 5.8% in northern white-cedar and 5.1% in red maple. The test put Usnea lichen at 5.7%. The lab ranked fir above cedar on protein. Our read is therefore that cedar's lead in the rankings rests on intake and rumen evidence rather than protein. Our read is also that a deer can fill its rumen with fir without holding its condition.

IVProtein Range

Most Winter Foods Run Near 5 to 7% Protein Except Sagebrush

A Forest Service guide to habitat gives adult mule deer maintenance needs as 5 to 7% crude protein with about 50% digestible energy. Tests put most winter foods near the low end of that range. In lab tests from the Southern Appalachians scarlet oak acorns measured 4.01% and white oak acorns measured 5.31%. Tests put chestnut oak acorns at 5.79% and rosebay rhododendron leaves at 6.02%. Cured bunchgrasses measured 3.1 to 4.6% while winter big sagebrush measured 11.7% with 57.8% in-vitro digestibility in Welch's collected findings.

Figure 1 · Crude protein in winter foodsOnly big sagebrush tests well above the 5 to 7% maintenance range
  1. 01Big sagebrush, winter11.7
  2. 02Balsam fir twigs, Maine7.2
  3. 03Rosebay rhododendron leaves6.02
  4. 04Northern white-cedar, Maine5.8
  5. 05Chestnut oak acorns5.79
  6. 06Usnea lichen, Maine5.7
  7. 07White oak acorns5.31
  8. 08Red maple twigs, Maine5.1
  9. 09Scarlet oak acorns4.01
Crude protein as percent of dry matter. Maine twigs and lichen were collected in February 1990 at one site (Applegate and Gray). Acorns and rhododendron leaves are Southern Appalachian lab assays (Wentworth, Johnson and Hale). Sagebrush is a compiled winter value (Welch). Cured bunchgrasses at 3.1 to 4.6% are left off because they are a range. Source MEASURED laboratory values.

Digestibility sets a tighter limit than protein. Red maple twigs had 5.1% protein but an estimated 29.9% digestibility, leaving essentially zero net digestible protein under the Robbins equation. The authors describe those digestibility figures as estimates.

Our read is that sagebrush explains why mule deer keep their condition on sagebrush range and lose it after sagebrush burns away. Updike and colleagues compared December rumens from the Doyle herd along the California and Nevada line. Total browse filled 63% of volume in 30 deer from 1951 to 52 and 20% in 16 deer in December 1987 at adjacent sites. Fires burned at least 159,000 acres (64,300 ha) of winter range from 1983 to 88. Dry cheatgrass climbed from 6% to 79% of volume. Among 31 deer collected in 1987, 28 ranked in poor to fair condition under a body fat index.

FDR's native browse guide explains the drop in native plant protein as plants mature.

VMast Failure

A Poor Crop Cut Early-Winter Doe Kidney Fat by 53%

Wentworth, Johnson and Hale studied rumens from Southern Appalachian national forests from November 1983 to February 1988 and rated each crop good or poor using state mast surveys. In early winter acorns filled 65.2% of rumen volume following good crops (97 rumens) and 3.8% following poor crops (119 rumens). Broadleaf evergreen leaves rose from 16.3% to 69.4%.

Figure 2 · Early-winter rumen contents after good and poor acorn cropsA failed crop swaps acorns for evergreen leaves
  1. 01Acorns, good crop65.2
  2. 02Acorns, poor crop3.8
  3. 03Evergreen leaves, good crop16.3
  4. 04Evergreen leaves, poor crop69.4
Percent of rumen volume in early winter, Southern Appalachian national forests, white-tailed deer, 97 rumens in good crop years and 119 in poor years. Source Wentworth, Johnson and Hale 1990 (SAMPLED).

That switch comes with an energy cost. Lab tests put white oak acorns at 2.32 kcal of digestible energy per gram and chestnut oak at 2.33. Scarlet oak supplied 1.93 and rosebay rhododendron leaves supplied just 1.27. The authors worked out these lab values using digestibility and gross energy.

Adult does had an early-winter kidney fat index of 84.87 following good crops (68 does) and 39.82 following poor crops (106 does). The kidney fat index following poor crops was 53% lower than following good crops. Rumen crude protein was higher after poor crops at 9.7% in fall against 7.5% because acorns contain little protein. Acorns supply energy.

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PeriodAcorns, good cropAcorns, poor cropBroadleaf evergreens, good cropBroadleaf evergreens, poor cropRumens (good, poor)
Fall (Nov 1 to Dec 21)49.6%5.0%15.2%33.5%37, 144
Early winter (Jan 3 to Feb 3)65.2%3.8%16.3%69.4%97, 119
Late winter (Feb 25 to Mar 27)44.1%0.0%24.7%73.2%12, 41
Share of rumen volume after good and poor acorn crops, Southern Appalachian national forests, white-tailed deer, rumens collected November 1983 to February 1988. The late-winter good-crop figure rests on only 12 rumens. Crops were rated good or poor from state mast surveys. Source Wentworth, Johnson and Hale 1990 (SAMPLED).

Our rule is to tally mast before snow arrives. After a poor acorn year expect deer to start winter with roughly half the kidney fat and expect leaf and twig browse to carry them through winter. In September look over 10 oaks of each group on your ground for acorns in the crown and on the ground. Record white-group and red-group trees because white and chestnut oak acorns supplied more digestible energy than scarlet oak.

FDR's guide to white and red oak acorns explains a Georgia captive preference trial and ways to check crowns. FDR's Missouri forest-county paper compares changes in harvest with state acorn reports.

VIWinter Reserves

Deer Choose to Eat Less and Burn Most of Their Fat

Deer reduce their winter intake even with unlimited food. In Louisiana pen trials from the mid-1960s Fowler and colleagues gave 5 bucks and 5 does free-choice feed. Does ate 28 grams per kilogram of body weight in September and 17 to 19 grams in January to March. Intake dropped by 32 to 39%.

DelGiudice and colleagues tracked 6 captive adult deer on a restricted diet at Grand Rapids in Minnesota. Their greatest weight loss reached 12.8% from December to early April and their fat reserves dropped by at least 85%. Deer kept without food in late winter lost at least 17.5% of peak winter weight. Weight loss in wild deer will differ from these captive results.

Baker and colleagues gave 6 mule deer fawns 25% of an ad lib ration in winter 1975. Four died after 28 or 42 days with a mean weight loss of 32.7%. Those that survived lost 16.0% and 13.7%. Our read is that 10 to 20% winter weight loss is a working range for northern deer with starvation near a third of body weight. A deer looking only modestly lighter in March can have little left.

In Frontiers in Ecology and Evolution Monteith and colleagues found that captive adult bucks in South Dakota lost an average of 52 pounds (23.5 kg) or about 20% of body mass from mid-October to mid-December despite constant access to feed. FDR's post-rut guide explains buck weight loss and food late in the season.

The femur marrow test is reliable only in one direction. In a Canadian Field-Naturalist study on northeastern Minnesota deer femurs researchers found gelatinous marrow in 15 of 31 cases below 46% marrow fat and in just 5 of 139 cases above it. Our rule is to read gelatinous marrow as evidence of poor condition and white firm marrow as no assurance of good condition.

VIISurvival Signals

Spring Melt Predicted Upper Michigan Doe Deaths Better Than Winter Snow Depth

Agency indexes tally days with deep snow. Minnesota DNR adds 1 point per day with a low at or below 0 °F and 1 per day with 15 inches of snow or more from November through May. It rates 50 or less as mild and 120 or more as severe.

An index by itself can give the wrong impression. Kautz and colleagues tracked 150 captures of pregnant adult does (147 deer) in Michigan's Upper Peninsula from 2009 to 2015. Late-winter survival ran 0.22 in 2013 to 14 (27 does) with an index of 167 and 6 of the study's 8 malnutrition deaths happened that winter. The following winter had a score of 145 yet survival reached 0.83. In a low-snow area in 2010 survival ran 0.72 with an index of 11.

Weekly snow depth failed to explain mortality. Each day without snow after February 1 lowered weekly mortality risk by 8.1% (95% interval 3.9 to 13.2%). Predation caused 78% of the known deaths. Our read is that the first snow-free week matters more than the week with the deepest snow. That lines up with the Minnesota yards where signs of recovery appeared after late-March snow dropped below about 7 inches.

Our rule is to tally deep-snow days over the full window and set aside the depth on any single date. Get daily snow depth from the nearest weather station and work out your own score. Keep comparisons within states. FDR's winter severity guide explains the Minnesota and Wisconsin formulas and the Upper Peninsula doe data.

VIIICollared Fawns

Fawn Survival in 2022 to 23 Ranged From 0 to 69%

Utah's statewide tracking of collared female deer for 2022 to 23 measured adult survival at 72% (1,022 does) and fawn survival at 40% (142 female fawns). The Utah mule deer plan lists 10-year means of 79.8% and 52.1%. Fawn survival in the Cache unit ran 5%.

Idaho Fish and Game said 90% of collared fawns and 50% of collared adult females died that winter in southeast Idaho. For Units 72 and 76 combined the agency's outlook for hunters lists 94% and 63% without a sample size.

On the Wyoming Range Wyoming Game and Fish counted 0 of 92 collared fawns still alive on May 25 of 2023 and 31% of collared does. That tracking window covers December to late May. The agency estimated a reduction in herd size from about 30,000 to about 11,000 deer by February 2024. In the agency's monitoring report for 2023 juvenile survival in the Laramie Mountains reached 69%.

These rows cover different windows so check the table before making comparisons. FDR's paper on the 2022 to 23 mule deer winter examines harvest afterward in Utah, Wyoming and Colorado.

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PlaceAdult females aliveFawns or juveniles aliveSample or note
Utah statewide72%40%1,022 adults and 142 fawns
Utah, Cache unit53%5%73 adults and 38 fawns
Utah, Book Cliffs unit94%not reported34 adults
Southeast Idaho50%10%Collared deer, sample not stated
Idaho Units 72 and 76 combined37%6%Sample not stated
Wyoming Range31%0%0 of 92 collared fawns alive
Wyoming, Laramie Mountains77%69%2023 curves
Wyoming, Sweetwater74%41%2023 curves
Collared deer alive at the end of each agency's window, winter 2022 to 23. Windows and measures differ. Utah figures are female deer only. Idaho figures are one minus the reported mortality (DERIVED). Wyoming Range figures run December 9 2022 to May 25 2023. The Laramie Mountains and Sweetwater does are 2023 calendar-year curves and juveniles run January 1 to about the end of May, read from curve end labels. Sources Utah DWR, Idaho Fish and Game and Wyoming Game and Fish (SAMPLED).
Figure 3 · Collared fawns or juveniles alive, winter 2022 to 23Fawn survival ran from 0 to 69% across herds in one winter
  1. 01Wyoming, Laramie Mountains69
  2. 02Wyoming, Sweetwater41
  3. 03Utah statewide40
  4. 04Southeast Idaho10
  5. 05Idaho Units 72 and 766
  6. 06Utah, Cache unit5
  7. 07Wyoming Range0
Percent of collared fawns or juveniles alive at the end of each agency's window. Windows differ (see the table). Idaho values are one minus reported mortality. Source Utah DWR, Idaho Fish and Game and Wyoming Game and Fish (SAMPLED, Idaho DERIVED).

IXFeeding Trial

Utah Fed and Unfed Does Had Statistically Similar Survival Rates

Peterson and Messmer tracked 92 collared mule deer does at 4 fed and 4 unfed sites in northern Utah from 2001 to 06. Fed sites received a 14% protein pellet at 2 pounds (0.9 kg) per deer per day. Annual survival ran 0.80 at fed sites against 0.73 at unfed sites with P = 0.121.

Deer-vehicle collisions caused 18 of 53 deaths (34%) and the authors wrote that collisions appeared to cancel any production gains credited to feeding.

Grain brings a risk of its own. Michigan DNR says abruptly switching to a corn meal can cause fatal acidosis in deer within 24 to 72 hours. Where feeding is legal the agency recommends introducing grain over 3 weeks. Those time frames come from agency guidance and were not measured in a controlled deer trial.

Our rule is to spend winter money on cover and standing food before buying feeders. Several states exempt a standing crop left as a food plot from feeding bans and the official Vermont and Virginia pages say so. FDR's food plot property design guide explains where to put plots on a property.

XState Rules

Agency Pages Listed 10 States With Year-Round Statewide Feeding Bans

We checked official state agency pages on November 9 of 2026. Ten states prohibit recreational deer feeding statewide year-round. Those states are Alaska, California, Colorado, Illinois, Montana, Nevada, New York, Rhode Island, Vermont and Washington. Three other states ban it for part of the year and 15 restrict their bans to disease zones or regions. We could not confirm the feeding rules for Georgia, Hawaii and Kansas.

Wisconsin prohibits baiting and feeding in 59 of 72 counties under a map dated that day. Minnesota prohibits feeding and attractants in 37 counties after 5 counties were added in 2026. Washington's statewide deer feeding ban began May 17 of 2025. Michigan's Public Act 86 of 2026 became effective July 27 and permits up to 2 gallons of feed within 300 feet of a residence. The Michigan DNR baiting page continued to show its older rules on November 9. The Utah page we checked shows no statewide ban and the agency advises against private feeding. Our rule is to look at your own state agency page the week you take action. FDR's Michigan baiting page explains how rules can vary within a state.

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StateFeeding ruleOfficial page
IllinoisBanned statewideilga.gov/commission/jcar/admincode/017/017006350000400R.html
VermontBanned statewidelegislature.vermont.gov/statutes/section/10appendix/001/00037
WashingtonBanned statewide since May 17 2025app.leg.wa.gov/wac/default.aspx?cite=220-440-260
ColoradoBanned statewidecpw.state.co.us/feeding-wildlife
MichiganBanned in the Lower Peninsula and limited in the Upper Peninsula. Public Act 86 of 2026 allows up to 2 gallons within 300 feet of a residencemichigan.gov/dnr/managing-resources/laws/baiting
MinnesotaBanned in 37 CWD countiesdnr.state.mn.us/news/2026/06/22/minnesota-dnr-adds-five-counties-deer-feeding-and-attractant-ban
WisconsinBanned in 59 counties (map dated November 9 2026)dnr.wisconsin.gov/topic/hunt/bait.html
VirginiaBanned September 1 to the first Saturday in January and year-round in CWD countiesdwr.virginia.gov/wildlife/deer/feeding-deer/
KentuckyBanned March 1 to July 31 statewide with zone rulesfw.ky.gov/Hunt/Pages/Restrictions-on-feeding-wildlife.aspx
UtahAllowed in most places and discouraged by the Division of Wildlife Resourceswildlife.utah.gov/deer/feeding
Deer feeding rules from official agency or statute pages marked READ, as of November 9 2026. Feeding and baiting are separate acts in most state codes. Rules and county lists change each season, so check your own state agency page before you act.

XIStation Analysis

Buck Harvest Dropped 8 to 15 Points After the Worst Winters

This section presents FDR's own analysis rather than a published study. We calculated the Minnesota and Wisconsin winter formulas using daily records from 825 NOAA weather stations from 2000 to 2026. The result covered 9,509 county or permit-area winters with a Minnesota-style score. Compared with Minnesota DNR's published color-class maps our ranking had a Spearman rank correlation of 0.91 for 2021 to 22 (104 permit areas) and 0.80 for 2022 to 23 (99). Our score came in above the DNR class in 37% of permit areas in the first winter and 35% in the second. We call it our station score. It follows the DNR formula and cannot replace the DNR index.

We then compared each unit's score with its next-fall change in buck harvest relative to the median change for all units in that state and year. Four states supplied usable buck series. Those series included Wisconsin registrations for 60 counties and Minnesota adult-male harvest by permit area. Michigan survey estimates and Iowa registrations for 99 counties supplied the other series. Across all four (4,449 county-winters over 25 winters) each 10 index points went with 0.53 fewer points of next-fall change in buck harvest. The 95% interval with clustering by winter ranged from 0.29 to 0.76 fewer points. Wisconsin by itself showed 0.95 fewer points and Minnesota showed 0.69. The analysis detected no relationship in Iowa and its interval extended below and above zero.

Losses were larger in severe bands. Under the Minnesota cut-offs the pooled severe band (97 unit-winters) averaged 9.3 points below the rest of the state while mild winters rose 0.9. Wisconsin's very severe band dropped 14.8 points but draws on 10 county-winters from 2 winters. Minnesota permit areas in the severe band dropped 8.1.

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Series and scaleMildModerateSevereVery severe
Pooled WI, MN, MI survey, IA, Minnesota-style bands+0.9 (0.5 to 1.3), n = 3,807-1.1 (-2.2 to -0.1), n = 545-9.3 (-11.5 to -7.1), n = 97not defined
Pooled, Wisconsin-style bands+0.9 (0.5 to 1.3), n = 3,977-0.7 (-2.0 to 0.6), n = 334-4.2 (-6.9 to -1.5), n = 90-9.5 (-11.9 to -7.0), n = 93
Wisconsin, 61 counties+0.7 (0.1 to 1.3), n = 1,334-1.4 (-3.2 to 0.4), n = 116-4.9 (-13.0 to 3.2), n = 13-14.8 (-22.8 to -6.8), n = 10
Minnesota permit areas+1.9 (0.9 to 2.9), n = 615-1.0 (-2.7 to 0.6), n = 247-8.1 (-10.3 to -5.8), n = 83-8.9 (-11.5 to -6.3), n = 78
FDR analysis. Mean change in next-fall buck harvest relative to the median change of all units in the same state and year, by winter severity band, in percentage points with 95% intervals and the number of unit-winters. Bands use agency cut-offs. Minnesota's scale has no very severe band, so its very severe cell uses Wisconsin bands on the Wisconsin-style score. Severe bands rest on few winters (Wisconsin 2 to 3, Minnesota 5). Source FDR NOAA-station scores and state harvest series (DERIVED).
Figure 4 · FDR analysis, buck harvest lost after severe wintersThe worst bands lost 8 to 15 points of next-fall buck harvest against the rest of the state
  1. 01Wisconsin counties, very severe14.8
  2. 02Pooled, Wisconsin bands, very severe9.5
  3. 03Pooled, Minnesota bands, severe9.3
  4. 04Minnesota areas, very severe8.9
  5. 05Minnesota areas, severe8.1
  6. 06Wisconsin counties, severe4.9
  7. 07Pooled, Wisconsin bands, severe4.2
Points of next-fall buck harvest change below the median change of all units in the same state and year, shown as positive losses. Association, not cause. Bands rest on few winters and the Wisconsin very severe bar has 10 county-winters from 2 winters. Source FDR analysis of NOAA-station winter scores and state harvest series (DERIVED).

A bad winter by itself does not guarantee a decline. Among the 15 highest-scoring unit-winters with a next-fall change the mean ran 5.3 points below the state and 10 of the 15 were negative. Some Minnesota areas hit hardest rose following 2022 to 23. Permit area 119 rose 1.3% and area 109 rose 11.3%.

The winter of 2022 to 23 sets the north apart from the rest. Buck harvest fell 20.1% in the 10 northern Wisconsin counties while the other 50 counties saw a 3.6% decline. Michigan survey estimates dropped 5.9% in northern units against a 5.4% increase elsewhere. We use survey estimates for Michigan because county reports declined as compliance fell (county reports totaled 87.65% of the statewide survey estimate in 2022 and 77.5% in 2023).

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SeriesNorth: units, change (median score)Rest of state: units, change (median score)
Wisconsin registrations10, -20.1% (55)50, -3.6% (12)
Michigan survey estimates9, -5.9% (8)51, +5.4% (3)
Minnesota permit areas27, -4.5% (153)88, -0.7% (62)
Iowa registrations10, -3.3% (21)86, -4.4% (12)
FDR analysis. Change in buck harvest from fall 2022 to fall 2023, northern units against the rest of each state, with the median Minnesota-style winter score in parentheses. Michigan uses the state's survey estimates because county reports fell with reporting compliance. Minnesota's north is the forest-zone permit areas. Source state harvest series and FDR NOAA-station scores (MEASURED counts, DERIVED changes).

Minnesota departs from that pattern. Its forest-zone permit areas had scores of 130 to 182 that winter and buck harvest dropped only 4.5% against 0.7% elsewhere in the state. We did not test any explanation. Possible explanations include antlerless permit cuts that moved hunter effort toward bucks or a 2023 change in how DNR tables handle special hunts.

Read all of this as an association. Winter severity explains just about 2 to 4% of county-to-county variation. A placebo test regressing the change before winter on the winter score found a pooled slope of 0.25 fewer points that was not significant. That slope was negative and a third to a half the size of the real slopes so some of the link may come from northern counties following different trends for other reasons. Wisconsin's decline was widespread. Marinette County had a score of only 15 yet dropped 18.6%. We did not adjust for antlerless permits, season changes, wolves, epizootic hemorrhagic disease or hunter effort. In 967 unit-winters the score comes from a single weather station. The main Wisconsin series excludes Wisconsin's 11 Northern Forest counties because buck counts are missing in key years. Harvest counts what hunters took and tells little about how many deer made it through.

Our rule is to expect a modest and consistent decline of about 8 to 15 points relative to the state after severe winters and to treat no single county as a verdict.

NOTES AND SOURCES

  1. Source: Wentworth, Johnson and Hale 1990, deer foods after good and poor acorn crops in the Southern Appalachians, Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies.
  2. Also: Harlow and Hooper, southeastern deer foods, Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies.
  3. Also: DelGiudice, Nelson and Mech 1991, Forest Service General Technical Report NC-147.
  4. Also: Kautz and colleagues 2020, Upper Peninsula doe survival.
  5. Also: Utah Division of Wildlife Resources 2023 big game annual report.
  6. Also: Wyoming Game and Fish Department, Wyoming Range mule deer report.
  7. Also: Peterson and Messmer 2011, winter feeding of mule deer in northern Utah.
  8. Scope: White-tailed and mule deer winter diet, body condition, collared-deer survival and supplemental feeding, from the papers and agency pages linked in the text. Diet shares come from rumen, bite-count and fecal DNA studies, mostly collected before 1990 with small samples. Survival figures are agency monitoring for winter 2022 to 23. FDR's analysis covers about 4,400 county and permit-area winters in Wisconsin, Minnesota, Michigan and Iowa since 2000. Feeding rules come from official state pages opened November 9, 2026.
  9. Method: Figures are quoted from the source linked beside each claim, and figures we computed show their arithmetic. FDR's analysis computed the Minnesota and Wisconsin winter severity formulas from NOAA GHCN-Daily station records within 50 km of each unit and compared each unit's score with the next fall's change in buck harvest relative to the median change of all units in the same state and year. It reports an association and does not control for antlerless permits, season rules, wolves, disease, hunter effort or Michigan reporting compliance.
  10. Limits: Most winter diet percentages come from rumens collected before 1990 with small samples, and rumen volume, bite counts and fecal DNA reads measure different things. Compare within a study and never average across studies.
  11. Limits: Captive and pen results (Minnesota restricted-diet deer, Colorado fawns, Louisiana pens, South Dakota bucks) show what deer can do under set feed, not what wild deer lose in an average winter.
  12. Limits: Collared-deer survival windows differ by agency and some Idaho figures are one minus reported mortality with no sample size. Idaho's statewide fawn figure depends on the cutoff date and is not used.
  13. Limits: The feeding field test is one study in one Utah region. Agency timings for grain acidosis are guidance and no controlled deer trial measured them. Feeding rules and county lists change each season.
  14. Limits: FDR's winter severity score is computed from NOAA stations using the Minnesota and Wisconsin formulas. It reads higher than Minnesota DNR's class in about a third of permit areas and 967 unit-winters rest on a single station. It is not the DNR index.
  15. Limits: The buck harvest link is an association. It explains about 2 to 4% of county-to-county variation, a pre-winter placebo test was negative though not significant, Iowa shows no relationship and Minnesota's forest zone broke the pattern after 2022 to 23. Antlerless permits, season rules, wolves, disease, hunter effort and Michigan reporting compliance were not controlled. Wisconsin's 11 Northern Forest counties are left out of the main Wisconsin harvest series.

Fully Drawn Research is an independent data analysis desk, not affiliated with any state wildlife agency, transportation agency, mapping provider or outfitter. Fully Drawn Research is an independent data and analysis desk. This paper summarizes published studies and state agency reports and adds FDR's own analysis of public weather station and deer harvest data. Harvest figures describe what hunters reported or what agencies estimated, not how many deer are present, and they reflect regulations and hunter choices as well as deer numbers.

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Fully Drawn Research. "Deer Burn Fat All Winter and Food Controls the Pace." FDR Working Paper 243, Nov 9, 2026. https://www.fullydrawnresearch.ai/research/papers/what-deer-eat-in-winter. Accessed Nov 12, 2026.

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