In Oregon's 2025 elk drawing, 73 out of the 152 hunts allowing any legal weapon with first-choice applicant pools of 100 or more posted overall odds of at least 50%. Of those hunts, 16 gave everyone on first choice a tag. Ten finished below 5%. The toughest was Mt Emily Unit No. 2 (254Y1), where 0.7% of an applicant pool of 8,621 received tags. These percentages average each hunt's results over every point level, pooling resident applicants with nonresidents. They do not describe the chances of a hunter holding a particular point total.
KEY FINDINGS
- Among 152 hunts whose first-choice applicant pools reached 100 or more, 73 reached odds of at least 50%, 16 awarded tags to everyone, and 10 fell below 5%.
- Together, the ten hunts below 5% attracted 18,081 out of 81,892 first-choice applicants (22.1%), with 205 tags awarded across those hunts.
- At Mt Emily Unit No. 2 (254Y1), 57 tags went to a pool of 8,621 first-choice applicants. Wenaha Unit No. 2 (256Y1) awarded 39 tags from a pool of 4,169.
- The four hunt names beginning with Saddle Mtn Unit covered odds from 1.4% for hunt 210 to 100.0% for 210X as well as 210Y.
IThe Split
Roughly half offered an even chance or better
Of our 152 ranked elk hunts in Oregon, 73 had odds reaching 50% or higher during 2025. Within that group, 16 gave tags to everyone naming them first. Ten hunts fell below 5% at the low end. The chart below places the remaining hunts between those extremes.
Our list covers elk hunts allowing any legal weapon and comes from ODFW's report on preference points for the 2025 elk draw. The agency provides that report as a spreadsheet through its page for point summaries. Only applicants naming a hunt first were counted, pooling residents with nonresidents. To calculate odds, we divided the tags awarded by that first-choice applicant total. The spreadsheet contains 252 such hunts. Our ranking covers 152 whose first-choice applicant pools reached 100 or more. With a smaller pool, a single tag shifts the percentage too much for comparison.
A tally of hunts makes the draw seem friendlier than it feels to applicants, who do not divide evenly among those hunts.
IIThe Crowd
Ten hunts attracted 22.1% of applicants naming a first choice
Hunts with odds below 5% account for 10 out of 152 in the ranking. They pulled in 18,081 out of 81,892 first-choice applicants, a share of 22.1%, while awarding 205 tags altogether. Much of that concentration comes from two hunts. Mt Emily Unit No. 2 (254Y1) had a first-choice applicant pool of 8,621. Wenaha Unit No. 2 (256Y1) had 4,169. Combined, their applicant pools total 12,790 people, representing 15.6% of applicants across the ranking. Those hunts awarded 96 tags together.
Mt Emily Unit No. 2 drew a larger first-choice applicant pool than all 15 of the easiest hunts put together: 8,621 versus 6,278.
Swipe table to see every column
| Hunt | Description | First-choice applicants | Tags drawn | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 254Y1 | Mt Emily Unit No. 2 | 8,621 | 57 | 0.7% |
| 256Y1 | Wenaha Unit No. 2 | 4,169 | 39 | 0.9% |
| 252T2 | Glass Hill Youth | 227 | 3 | 1.3% |
| 255Y1 | Walla Walla Unit No. 2 | 1,728 | 24 | 1.4% |
| 210 | Saddle Mtn Unit | 707 | 10 | 1.4% |
| 214 | Trask Unit | 619 | 10 | 1.6% |
| 212 | Wilson Unit | 480 | 10 | 2.1% |
| 223A | Melrose Unit | 368 | 10 | 2.7% |
| 252C2 | Starkey Experimental Forest No. 2 | 583 | 16 | 2.7% |
| 224C | Tioga Private | 579 | 26 | 4.5% |
| 255A | Mill Cr Watershed | 291 | 19 | 6.5% |
| 216B | SW Santiam | 157 | 11 | 7.0% |
| 210T | Saddle Mtn Unit Youth | 132 | 10 | 7.6% |
| 237X | Ochoco Unit No. 1 | 1,774 | 136 | 7.7% |
| 211 | Scappoose Unit | 357 | 28 | 7.8% |
After the leading two hunts, tag totals drop off fast. Glass Hill Youth (252T2) awarded 3 tags among 227 applicants. Saddle Mtn Unit (210) awarded exactly the same total as Trask Unit (214). Matching those totals were Wilson Unit (212), along with Melrose Unit (223A), with exactly 10 tags apiece across those four hunts. The highest odds shown are 7.8%. Across all 15 hardest hunts, fewer than one in twelve applicants naming the hunt first received a tag.
IIIThe Same Name
Saddle Mtn odds spanned 1.4% to 100.0%
Similar hunt names appear in both tables, yet their outcomes differ sharply. Saddle Mtn Unit (210) awarded 10 tags among 707 first-choice applicants, producing odds of 1.4%. For Saddle Mtn Unit Youth (210T), 10 tags went to a pool of 132, giving odds of 7.6%. In the table of easiest hunts are Saddle Mtn Unit No. 1 (210X), along with Saddle Mtn Unit No. 2 (210Y). Every first-choice applicant received a tag: all 1,278 for the former, and all 1,064 for the latter. These draw figures do not explain the differences among the four hunts. We did not review their rules. Compare the codes when researching hunts; the names are just labels.
Swipe table to see every column
| Hunt | Description | First-choice applicants | Tags drawn | Odds |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 234X | E Central Cascades | 1,300 | 1,300 | 100.0% |
| 210X | Saddle Mtn Unit No. 1 | 1,278 | 1,278 | 100.0% |
| 210Y | Saddle Mtn Unit No. 2 | 1,064 | 1,064 | 100.0% |
| 231X | SE Cascades | 393 | 393 | 100.0% |
| 241Y | White Rvr - Hood No. 2 | 379 | 379 | 100.0% |
| 245D | Fossil Private | 347 | 347 | 100.0% |
| 241X | White Rvr - Hood No. 1 | 310 | 310 | 100.0% |
| 248A2 | Heppner Unit No. 2 | 257 | 257 | 100.0% |
| 260Y | Minam Unit No. 2 | 182 | 182 | 100.0% |
| 260X | Minam Unit No. 1 | 153 | 153 | 100.0% |
| 249A2 | Ukiah Unit No. 2 | 133 | 133 | 100.0% |
| 226X | Powers Unit No. 1 | 126 | 126 | 100.0% |
| 264A1 | Lookout Mtn Unit No. 1 | 125 | 125 | 100.0% |
| 276Y | Silver Lake Unit No. 2 | 118 | 118 | 100.0% |
| 251C | S Sumpter | 113 | 113 | 100.0% |
Shown here are 15 out of 16 hunts that awarded everyone a tag, ordered from the biggest applicant pool down. The sixteenth pool was smaller than the one in the final row. At 100.0%, everyone naming that hunt as their first choice received a tag in 2025. The result reflects a single year's applicants. The following year's applicants can push any of these hunts lower in the ranking.
IVWhat The Percent Means
How we calculated odds and their limits
We calculated each draw percentage by dividing the 2025 tag total by the 2025 first-choice applicant total, using ODFW's spreadsheet. Each figure averages the entire hunt across all point levels, pooling residents with nonresidents. Those groups have separate totals in the spreadsheet, and their results can differ greatly. Mt Emily Unit No. 2 shows residents receiving 56 tags among 8,127 applicants; nonresidents receiving 1 tag among 494 applicants.
Preference point totals provide another breakdown for each hunt in the spreadsheet. This article supplies no odds broken down by points. A hunter's chances on first choice depend on their point total and the following year's demand. For later choices, their chances also depend on the hunts named second or farther down their application and the order in which they named them.
Second through fifth choices also appear in ODFW's report showing applicants for each hunt choice, but our analysis excludes them. That report and the spreadsheet differ by two applicants for a single hunt. The hunt is 266X (N Malheur Rvr No. 1). The spreadsheet lists 787 first-choice applicants; the report lists 789. We followed the spreadsheet. Our ranking covers hunts allowing any legal weapon only. Archery hunts and muzzleloader hunts have their own drawings. We excluded the 100 hunts whose first-choice applicant pools were smaller than 100. Draw odds tell you who received tags; they tell you nothing about the elk waiting in those areas.
VReading It Right
How to build your application list
Put the code for each hunt you are considering on your list, alongside its overall draw odds. The Saddle Mtn results show why hunt names give you little to go on.
When a hunt falls below 5%, read its overall odds as a summary of the applicant pool. Before making your choice, check the spreadsheet for your point level. An average of 0.7% combines applicants whose point totals differ widely.
Consider a hunt showing 100.0% only when the rules and season match your plans. That percentage means only that every applicant naming the hunt first received a tag. The outcomes are from 2025; consult the latest ODFW reports before submitting an application.
Our articles covering elk harvest elsewhere in the West include Wyoming elk hunt areas plus Montana elk and mule deer.
NOTES AND SOURCES
- Sources used: ODFW reports covering point summaries and draw outcomes, along with the 2025 report listing elk applicants by choice of hunt.
- For 2025, divide the tags awarded by applicants naming the hunt first to get odds. A hunter's chances change with point totals, second choices, and the following year's demand.
- The scope covers hunts allowing any legal weapon. Archery hunts and muzzleloader hunts use their own drawings.
Fully Drawn Research is an independent data analysis desk, not affiliated with any state wildlife agency, transportation agency, mapping provider or outfitter. Fully Drawn Research is an independent data and analysis desk. This paper reports FDR's analysis of public agency data. Harvest figures describe animals reported or estimated as harvested, not population size, and reflect hunter effort and regulations as well as animal numbers.
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