According to Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks, the estimated elk kill reached 27,262 in 2025, an increase of 17.2% over the 23,255 taken in 2004. The estimated mule deer kill declined 43.4%: 64,854 at the start, compared with 36,729 at the end. Does contributed more than half of that mule deer decrease. Resident hunters accounted for most of the decline. These estimates describe harvest, which depends on licensing, hunter participation and animal numbers. Before arranging a mule deer hunt, use them as a reason to check district figures and the license rules currently in effect.
KEY FINDINGS
- The estimated elk kill increased 17.2%: hunters took 23,255 in 2004 compared with 27,262 in 2025.
- The estimated mule deer kill declined 43.4%: 64,854 became 36,729. Mule deer taken per elk consequently decreased from 2.79 animals to 1.35.
- For mule deer, does taken dropped from 19,960 animals to 4,423. Bucks taken declined as well, from 44,161 animals to 32,238.
- The resident mule deer kill declined 50.3%, with 50,445 animals taken initially and 25,070 at the end. For nonresidents, the decrease was 19.1%, with harvest dropping from 14,409 animals to 11,659.
IThe Split
Elk harvest increased 17.2%; mule deer harvest decreased 43.4%
Montana Fish, Wildlife & Parks uses hunter surveys to produce its estimated harvest figures. To compare elk with mule deer, we selected each species' statewide row for every year in the 2004 to 2025 period.
For 2004, estimated harvest totaled 64,854 mule deer against 23,255 elk. That works out to 2.79 mule deer taken per elk. In 2025, the estimated mule deer kill was down to 36,729, while the elk kill was up to 27,262. Mule deer taken per elk had dropped to 1.35.
- Mule deer
- Elk
Looking only at the start and finish misses the pattern in between. Estimated mule deer harvest sank to 34,481 during 2014 before recovering to an estimate of 55,545 by 2017. Across 2016 to 2021, it remained within a range of 49,855 to 55,545. Annual declines followed: the estimates were 42,609 for 2022, 41,377 for 2023, 39,087 for 2024 and 36,729 for 2025. Using 2020 as the starting point, with its estimate of 54,751, puts the 2025 total 18,022 below it, a decrease of 32.9%. Across the series' 22 years, 2014 alone had a smaller harvest estimate than 2025.
Elk estimates varied within a much tighter range. The estimate was low at 20,154 in 2013, then rose sharply to 30,921 in 2015. Each year since 2014, it has fallen within the range of 24,533 to 30,921. Between 2020 and 2025, the estimate dropped by 875, going from 28,137 to 27,262.
IISex and Age
Does account for over half the decline in mule deer harvest
From 2004 to 2025, estimated mule deer harvest shrank by 28,125 animals. Does contributed 15,537 of that decline, with their harvest dropping from 19,960 animals to 4,423. For bucks, the decrease totaled 11,923, as harvest went from 44,161 animals to 32,238. Fawns accounted for a decrease of 577, with harvest going from 645 to 68. The buck share of harvested mule deer was 68.1% during 2004, compared with 87.8% during 2025.
Swipe table to see every column
| Species and year | Adult males | Adult females | Young |
|---|---|---|---|
| Elk 2004 | 10,712 | 11,214 | 1,329 |
| Elk 2025 | 13,877 | 12,947 | 438 |
| Mule deer 2004 | 44,161 | 19,960 | 645 |
| Mule deer 2025 | 32,238 | 4,423 | 68 |
Adult elk harvest increased instead. The bull kill climbed from 10,712 animals to 13,877; the cow kill increased from 11,214 animals to 12,947. Calves accounted for a small share in each year, and their harvest declined from 1,329 animals to 438.
Read the doe estimate with licensing in mind. According to FWP, a deer B license covers antlerless deer. The agency's December 2025 notice concerning regulations for 2026 and 2027 says sales of deer B licenses during 2024 reached their lowest level since 2016. It describes the reduction as "a direct response to declining mule deer numbers." Harvest surveys by themselves cannot separate how much of the decline in does taken comes from licensing and how much comes from fewer does. Because our table contains only the endpoints for 2004 and 2025, it cannot establish whether doe harvest tracked license reductions annually. What we have is a sharp decrease in does harvested alongside a documented reduction in antlerless licenses.
IIIResidents and Nonresidents
Mule deer harvest declined much more for residents than for nonresidents
The estimated nonresident mule deer kill was 14,409 during 2004 versus 11,659 during 2025. That decrease amounts to 2,750 animals, or 19.1%. Residents' harvest declined from 50,445 animals to 25,070, losing 25,375 animals, or 50.3%. As a result, nonresidents took 31.7% of all mule deer harvested during 2025, compared with 22.2% during 2004. Estimated elk harvest increased for nonresidents, going from 3,926 animals to 5,732, a gain of 46.0%. For residents, it increased from 19,329 animals to 21,530, a gain of 11.4%. The nonresident portion of elk harvest consequently increased from 16.9% of harvest to 21.0%.
Those figures show which hunters took the animals. Whether one group crowded another is a different question. The survey figures we used contain no hunter counts or totals for licenses sold. That leaves us unable to tell whether nonresident hunters had more success than in the past or whether the number of tags they held stayed more consistent while resident harvest dropped.
According to FWP, its staff and the commissioners have been hearing increased concern over pressure from nonresident hunting, especially in Montana's eastern region. The agency's announcement from December 2025 reports commission approval of a sales cap for a specific nonresident deer license. According to FWP, availability for nonresidents would shrink by about 2,500. The notice also describes restrictions adopted by the 2023 Legislature: nonresidents may hold one deer B license, with two allowed if they also hold a combination license. Our figures stop at the close of the 2025 hunting season and therefore exclude the December 2025 changes.
IVMethod and Limits
Hunter surveys estimate the animals taken
Hunter surveys supply all the estimates shown here, and sampling error affects each year's figure. We do not have standard errors from the agency for this paper. We therefore focus on the pattern across years and interpret differences between individual years cautiously. For each species, we selected statewide rows only. Those totals include both residency groups and every sex and age category. Excluding district rows prevents double counting.
Every percentage uses a comparison between individual years. Choosing another pair would produce another result. Estimated mule deer harvest during 2014 was below the estimate for 2025; the size of the 43.4% decrease since 2004 partly reflects the high harvest in 2004.
Harvest's failure to measure population is the more important limit. License quotas, hunter participation and animal numbers all affect the estimate. Declining mule deer harvest agrees with FWP's reported concern over shrinking mule deer numbers. Harvest alone, however, does not measure herd size. The same caution applies in the seven-state whitetail look: several factors influence harvest, including antlerless policy and herd size.
VFor Your Hunt
Use statewide trends to choose where you look next
Montana's statewide elk estimate points to stable harvest. Annual estimates have remained within the 24,533 to 30,921 range since 2014, showing no statewide collapse in animals taken by hunters. Those totals cannot describe your intended hunting district. Before committing to a hunt, open the agency's harvest estimates and examine that district's records across multiple years.
Build your mule deer plans around today's regulations. According to FWP, during 2026 and 2027 most B licenses for mule deer will permit hunting on private land only. Check the current rules before relying on either a B license or public land. Nonresidents should also review the cap discussed above and the restriction to one B license. That review should include the exception permitting two B licenses when a nonresident also has a combination license.
A district-to-state comparison should include checking whether the district's license quota changed during the years being compared. If reduced harvest follows a quota reduction, licensing may explain most of the decline. When the quota holds steady, declining harvest provides a stronger clue to a change on the ground, although it remains only a clue. For help interpreting agency deer figures without reading too much into them, consult our field guide to government deer data.
NOTES AND SOURCES
- Data origin: MT_FWP_ELK_HARVEST_2004_2025.
- Data origin: MT_FWP_MULE_DEER_HARVEST_2004_2025.
- These figures estimate harvest based on hunter surveys; they do not represent estimates of animal population size.
- License quotas, hunter participation and animal numbers all influence harvest.
Fully Drawn Research is an independent data analysis desk, not affiliated with any state wildlife agency, transportation agency, mapping provider or outfitter. Fully Drawn Research is an independent data and analysis desk. This paper reports FDR's analysis of public agency data. Harvest figures describe animals reported or estimated as harvested, not population size, and reflect hunter effort and regulations as well as animal numbers.
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