Oklahoma's Fall Turkey Estimate Is Down 76.8% Since 1986

IThe big picture

Similar losses, different pace: fall down 76.8%, spring down 76.5%

Oklahoma Department of Wildlife Conservation conducts a hunter survey each year. The agency expands those responses to represent everyone holding a license. For fall turkey, the estimate dropped from 10,755 for 1986 to 2,490 for 2024: a 76.8% loss across 38 years. Spring's estimate climbed to 41,485 for 2006, then was 9,733 for 2024, down 76.5% across 18 years.

Across the entire series, spring harvest exceeds fall harvest in every year. Fall always supplies less than half of their combined take. Fall's biggest upswing covered 2002 to 2005, while spring harvest was still moving toward its high.

IIShape of fall

By 1988, the bulk of fall harvest was gone

The years between 1986 and 1988 account for most of the net decrease in fall harvest. The estimates were 10,755 for 1986, followed by 9,589 for 1987 and 5,054 for 1988. That stretch accounts for 5,701 out of the total 8,265 birds lost from fall's estimate since 1986. Across 1996 to 2001, each annual estimate was within 4,429 to 5,406. The lone surge to 13,930 during 1993 reflects a fall-hunter average of 1.10 turkeys that year, compared with 0.35 for 1992 and 0.21 for 1994. We consider that estimate an outlier rather than a peak.

Next, during 2002 to 2005, the fall harvest estimates ranged between 7,151 and 9,669. For each of those years, the entire 95% interval is higher than the upper end of the interval for 2024. That puts the decline since the mid-2000s beyond survey noise. Across the five years spanning 2020 to 2024, estimates ranged between 1,622 (the lowest, in 2023) and 2,783. Every estimate in that stretch is lower than all annual estimates for 1996 to 2001. The slide therefore is not merely a result of starting with 1986. Earlier than 2020, fall estimates had fallen below 3,000 just during 1994 and 1995, plus 2015.

Starting the comparison at 1988 rather than 1986 gives a fall decline of 50.7%. Our baseline remains 1986, the opening year in this series. The methods note describes why those first years warrant added caution.

IIIThe spring season

Spring's drop came after decades of stronger harvest

Spring harvest grew to more than twice its earlier level, rising from 17,714 for 1986 to 41,485 for 2006. A department account describes 2003 as the standout year. Our series places 2003 at 41,241, just 244 birds short of 2006. Their intervals overlap nearly completely, leaving the survey unable to clearly tell these peak estimates apart. Spring harvest then gradually declined, with upticks to 25,769 for 2010 and 27,460 for 2016. It hit 18,067 for 2021 before a steep slide to 12,002 for 2022 and 9,122 for 2023, the series low. The estimate for 2024 sits 45.1% lower than the spring figure for 1986.

Read the share column carefully. Fall accounted for 37.8% of the yearly harvest in 1986, 10.7% in 2020, and 20.4% in 2024. That increase did not represent a rebound in fall harvest. From 2020 to 2024, the estimated fall harvest increased from 2,193 to 2,490, while the spring harvest fell from 18,338 to 9,733. A change in either season can shift fall's share of the total.

IVHunters and bag

Fall participation and harvest per hunter each fell by roughly half

Estimates of hunter participation and average take also come from the survey. Together, they help account for the decline. Estimated fall turkey participation dropped from 25,607 for 1986 to 12,449 for 2024. Average fall take dropped from 0.42 birds to 0.20 for each hunter. Both figures declined by roughly half. Spring participation decreased from 66,075 for 2006 to 40,961 for 2024, while birds taken per hunter fell from 0.63 birds to 0.24. Most of spring's decrease is thus in harvest per hunter. From the survey, we cannot determine whether the change means fewer turkeys, more difficult hunting, or something else.

VRule changes

Turkey regulations became tighter in Oklahoma during 2021

On June 28, 2021, the Wildlife Conservation Commission adopted revised turkey regulations. According to the department's announcement dated July 1, those changes begin with fall 2021. Fall's limit is one tom across gun and archery methods combined, and its gun season permits only shotguns. Spring's limit is also one tom, with dates from April 16 to the season's close on May 16. The previously linked March 2022 account says the revisions followed biologists' worries about declining turkey numbers. It says those rules would make spring 2022 different from the recent seasons, and gives statewide population estimates of slightly less than 100,000 for 2016 and 70,000 for 2022.

Spring's decline was underway earlier: 27,460 for 2016 became 18,067 for 2021. It dropped further to 12,002 for 2022, the first spring season governed by the revised limit. Fall's estimate slid from 4,878 for 2019 to 2,193 for 2020, a year ahead of its regulation changes. The survey cannot separate the effects of regulation changes, turkey numbers, and hunter decisions.

VICounty counts

Treat the 2025 game-check total as its own count

Our analysis includes a county table for spring harvest, with none for fall. The state's harvest registration system logged 8,413 spring turkeys from 77 counties for 2025. The leader, Roger Mills County, had 541 birds. Its lead was 197 over Woodward's 344. Combined, the leading ten counties contributed 2,668 birds, equal to 31.7% of the statewide total.

These totals tally registered birds from a year outside the survey series, whose final year is 2024. They measure something different from the preceding estimates, so neither figure should be subtracted from the other. Our deer discussion covers that same distinction: our paper on registration counts and survey estimates. To see county counts tell a state's story, visit Kentucky. For a look at seven states that each posted higher spring numbers for 2026, read our regional comparison.

VIIMethod and limits

Estimated harvest has wide uncertainty intervals

The 2024 report draws on 2,509 completed surveys from 6,000 license holders chosen for the sample. Hunters report their hunting days and the birds they took for each species. The department uses those answers to estimate totals for all license holders. For the 2024 fall estimate, the 95% interval extends from 1,240 to 3,740, using a sample of 62 fall turkey hunters. Spring's interval extends from 7,335 to 12,132. Resident license types are covered in that table. The report describes small samples as a longstanding problem for game seasons that attract fewer hunters.

Comparisons over time face two limits in survey methods. Turkey estimates covering 1986 to 1994 have no intervals. Those figures were recalculated after an older correction factor was deemed unsuitable, with that factor left out. Our starting year, 1986, falls within that span. Statewide estimates also counted tribal licenses during the survey years spanning 2019 to 2021.

We therefore focus on the overall trend rather than a lone year. The report shows the fall estimate for 2024 running 54% higher than 2023. Because their intervals overlap, we do not describe that gain as a rebound. These data also leave the cause of fall's harvest decline unexplained. Hunting-season duration, harvest limits, hunter interest, and turkey abundance can each play a part.

VIIIIn the field

Fall hunting is small and largely on private ground

The survey reports private-land-only hunting for 95% of fall turkey participants, with 62 hunters in the sample. For 2026, the department posts these dates: archery opens Oct. 1, 2026 and continues to Jan. 15, 2027; gun runs Oct. 31 to its closing date of Nov. 20, 2026. The limit is one tom across methods, and a map shows gun-season restrictions.

Most of the difference between seasons lies in hunter numbers. Average fall take was 0.20 birds per hunter for 2024, compared with 0.24 in spring, although both estimates have wide intervals. For fall hunting, expect slow days. Ask landowners before relying on public ground. County choices for fall cannot be drawn from this survey. County-level evidence exists only for spring, where Roger Mills holds a substantial lead. Read the regulations page annually: changes arrived in 2021, and further changes can follow.