Over three seasons, Missouri's harvest reached its highest level ever, dropped 15%, then climbed again. Those changes in the kill, by themselves, do not demonstrate matching increases and decreases in the herd. MDC mainly links the 2024 to 25 decrease to a delayed firearms opener, unusually plentiful acorns and deer-season weather among the warmest recorded. Those factors affect hunters' success without necessarily altering the number of living deer. A Missouri harvest total by itself cannot reveal the living deer count.
KEY FINDINGS
- Across all Missouri deer seasons, the totals went 296,516 → 293,670 → 299,719. Harvest then jumped to an all-time high of 326,026 for 2023 to 24, exceeding the 2006 record of 325,457. A roughly 15% decline to ~276,000 for 2024 to 25 followed, before harvest recovered to 301,954 for 2025 to 26.
- For the 2024 to 25 decrease, MDC's account leaves open the possibility of a shrinking herd. The agency pointed to a particularly heavy acorn crop that held forest deer inside the woods, along with a firearms season that began late. Plentiful acorns can mean less deer movement and fewer encounters for hunters (Working Paper 13).
- A separate, gradual decline appears in archery harvest: 67,180 → 60,834 → 56,525 during 2020 to 2022. This slower structural pattern lies beneath the fluctuations caused by weather.
- Treat a year's Missouri harvest as a clue about hunting conditions rather than herd size. Even an average spanning several years counts harvested deer; it does not estimate the population. Hunter effort, available access, rules and harvest rates can shift too.
IThree seasons, three stories
Historic high, plunge, recovery
During 2020 to 2022, the statewide deer kill stayed within a narrow range just below 300,000. The 2023 to 24 season then reached 326,026, setting an all-time high above the previous best established in 2006. The following year brought a roughly 15% decline, leaving about 276,000. Harvest recovered to 301,954 the season after that. A hunter following just the headline would read this as a herd surge, collapse and recovery within three years. MDC offers no account of a herd surge followed by collapse. Instead, the agency reports steady increases in deer numbers across most counties during the past decade and links the 2024 decrease to the season schedule, acorn supply and weather. The total is being shaped by something besides herd size.
IIWhat actually moves the number
Weather, nut crops and season dates
In discussing the 2024 to 25 decrease, MDC specifically cited an especially large acorn crop and a firearms portion that began late. Both can lower the kill without showing a shrinking herd. Mast means acorns and other nuts; a heavy crop can limit movement by deer in Ozark forests and reduce hunters' encounters (Working Paper 13). For November firearms hunting, the 2024 start came about a week after the 2023 start. MDC places the rut's peak around Nov. 10, putting that later opening beyond peak deer movement. That first weekend supplies a large share of the November firearms kill. The take on Nov. 16 to 17, 2024, was 68,057 deer, or about 43% of the 158,577 harvested in that portion, compared with 90,253 in 2023. Opening weekend therefore yielded about 22,000 fewer deer in a season MDC connects with a delayed opening, plentiful acorns and warm, windy conditions. These factors provide no signal of population size.
A record kill and a crash separated by 12 months tell no story about herd size. Acorns and weather tell a story that looks like a change in deer numbers.
IIIThe trend under the noise
The quieter pattern in the numbers
Missouri's figures contain a real pattern that is less obvious than the large jumps and drops. Archery harvest reached its high of 67,180 in 2020, a year when MDC reports a jump in participation during the COVID era. By 2022 it was down to 56,525. Since then, it has stayed around 56,000 (the MDC summary pages report 55,731 for 2023 to 24 and 56,516 for 2024 to 25), remaining higher than the 10-year mean. Taken alone, these kill totals do not show how much of the shift reflects hunting conditions, herd numbers or hunters' effort. An average across multiple seasons can help frame an individual season. It does not untangle herd changes from the other factors that affect harvest.
IVWhat it means
Avoid decisions based on a lone season
Hunters and landowners looking at Missouri's deer kill need to resist drawing conclusions from the headline. From a record kill, you cannot conclude that deer numbers exploded and the following season will be easy. From a lower kill, you cannot conclude that the deer have disappeared. Consider how acorns and the opening date affected hunting, giving greater weight to an average across years than to a lone total. Weather, the size of acorn crops and the season schedule strongly affect Missouri's harvest, according to MDC's reports. Kill totals by themselves do not establish the size of the herd.
NOTES AND SOURCES
- Compared with its releases at each season's close, MDC reports slightly different totals on its later deer harvest summary pages: 326,448 for 2023 to 24, 275,656 for 2024 to 25 and 301,125 for 2025 to 26. This site's county papers draw their figures from those summary pages.
- For all deer seasons combined, harvest was 296,516 in 2020 to 21; 293,670 in 2021 to 22; 299,719 in 2022 to 23; a record 326,026 in 2023 to 24; a preliminary ~276,262 in 2024 to 25; and 301,954 in 2025 to 26. Archery harvest totaled 67,180 in 2020, 60,834 in 2021 and 56,525 in 2022. These figures come from season summaries issued by the Missouri Department of Conservation.
- MDC chiefly linked the 2024 to 25 decrease to an especially large acorn crop and a firearms season that started late. These numbers follow MDC's reporting and news accounts of the agency's releases. Individual season totals remain preliminary until the figures are finalized.
Fully Drawn Research is an independent data analysis desk, not affiliated with any state wildlife agency, transportation agency, mapping provider or outfitter. Fully Drawn Research is independent and not affiliated with the Missouri Department of Conservation. Informational only, not hunting, wildlife-management, or investment advice. Current to MDC reporting through the 2025–26 season.
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