With Juniper left out, five Oregon mule deer units averaged at least 30 bucks per 100 does from 2021 to 2025 in winter counts by the Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife (ODFW). Upper Deschutes at 31.2 and Fort Rock at 30.2 made that group, but their any-legal-weapon hunters had buck success of 14.9% and 13.4%. Those rates were the lowest among the 49 units with any-legal-weapon success. Success in the five high-ratio units ranged from 13.4% to 73.7%.
IRatios and kills
Two high-ratio units finished lowest in any-legal-weapon buck success among 49 units
The ratios are from ODFW's big game population survey figures. Success measures bucks killed per hunter over five seasons in ODFW's any-legal-weapon buck harvest summaries, with youth hunts excluded. Hood leads the ratio list at 52.8 based on only 4 surveyed years.
Swipe table to see every column
| Unit (WMU) | Bucks per 100 does, 2021-25 mean | Years surveyed | Buck success 2021-25 (%) | Hunters 2021-25 | Bucks with 4+ points (%) | 2025 resident draw (%) and hunt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hood (42) | 52.8 | 4 | 25.2 | 1,502 | 28.3 | 100.0 (142A) |
| Trout Creek Mtns (68) | 43.2 | 5 | 73.7 | 278 | 79.5 | 2.0 (168A) |
| Steens Mountain (69) | 33 | 5 | 49 | 1,432 | 44.2 | 17.4 (169A) |
| Upper Deschutes (34) | 31.2 | 5 | 14.9 | 7,034 | 27 | 94.3 (134) |
| Fort Rock (77) | 30.2 | 5 | 13.4 | 6,754 | 29.6 | 100.0 (177) |
| Beatys Butte (70) | 28.8 | 5 | 42.1 | 563 | 43.5 | 47.1 (170A) |
| Maupin (40) | 26.8 | 5 | 38.9 | 1,613 | 38.4 | 100.0 (140) |
| Metolius (39) | 26.6 | 5 | 37.7 | 1,037 | 35.3 | 13.9 (139) |
| Owyhee (67) | 26 | 5 | 56.3 | 1,843 | 51.3 | 24.1 (167) |
| Mt Emily (54) | 25.6 | 5 | 30 | 2,048 | 38.2 | 73.1 (154B) |
IISeason after season
Both units finished in the bottom three in each of five seasons
Success stayed low in every season, with big samples. Upper Deschutes finished among the three lowest of 49 units in each season from 2021 to 2025. Its success ranged from 11.8% to 20.7% on 1,235 to 1,487 hunters a season. Fort Rock finished lowest among the 49 in four of the five seasons and second lowest in the other, with success from 7.3% to 19.0% on 1,187 to 1,407 hunters. Trout Creek Mountains led in success in four seasons and ranged from 57.9% to 83.7%, with 49 to 64 hunters a season.
Swipe table to see every column
| Unit (WMU) | 2021 | 2022 | 2023 | 2024 | 2025 | Hunters a season |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Upper Deschutes (34) | 16.9% (2nd lowest) | 11.8% (3rd lowest) | 13.8% (2nd lowest) | 11.9% (lowest) | 20.7% (3rd lowest) | 1,235 to 1,487 |
| Fort Rock (77) | 16.1% (lowest) | 7.3% (lowest) | 13.4% (lowest) | 12.0% (2nd lowest) | 19.0% (lowest) | 1,187 to 1,407 |
| Trout Creek Mtns (68) | 83.7% (highest) | 81.6% (highest) | 57.9% (2nd highest) | 70.3% (highest) | 78.0% (highest) | 49 to 64 |
| Steens Mountain (69) | 56.4% (7th highest) | 48.6% (9th highest) | 39.4% (17th highest) | 49.3% (12th highest) | 52.3% (13th highest) | 275 to 302 |
| Hood (42) | 29.0% (10th lowest) | 16.2% (6th lowest) | 28.9% (17th lowest) | 24.8% (10th lowest) | 27.1% (9th lowest) | 269 to 327 |
IIIDraw results
Steens and Trout Creek's lowest 2025 point-phase draws had 8 and 18
Trout Creek Mountains and Steens Mountain combined high buck ratios with high kill rates. Trout Creek's average was 43.2 bucks per 100 does, and its 278 hunters over five seasons killed 205 bucks for 73.7% success. Steens had an average of 33.0 with 49.0% success.
ODFW's 2025 buck deer draw results show that the fewest points that drew in the preference-point phase were 18 for Trout Creek hunt 168A and 8 for Steens hunt 169A. Trout Creek drew 2.0% of resident first-choice applicants compared with 17.4% for Steens. Upper Deschutes hunt 134 drew 94.3% of resident first-choice applicants and Fort Rock hunt 177 drew every resident first-choice applicant.
Among the 46 ranked units, the rank correlation between buck ratio and success was 0.13 on a scale where 1 is a perfect match. Trout Creek, Steens and Owyhee were the only units on both top 10 lists.
Swipe table to see every column
| Unit (WMU) | Buck success 2021-25 (%) | Hunters 2021-25 | Bucks per 100 does, 2021-25 mean | Bucks with 4+ points (%) | 2025 resident draw (%) and hunt |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trout Creek Mtns (68) | 73.7 | 278 | 43.2 | 79.5 | 2.0 (168A) |
| Lookout Mountain (64) | 62.8 | 1,016 | 19 | 52.7 | 31.2 (164) |
| Keating (63) | 57.8 | 1,526 | 20.6 | 49.5 | 21.0 (163) |
| Owyhee (67) | 56.3 | 1,843 | 26 | 51.3 | 24.1 (167) |
| Pine Creek (62) | 55.9 | 875 | 22 | 44.8 | 31.0 (162) |
| Beulah (65) | 53.2 | 6,061 | 18.2 | 38.5 | 38.1 (165) |
| West Biggs (43) | 52.6 | 3,425 | 20 | 37.3 | 88.5 (143B) |
| Murderers Creek (46) | 51.9 | 4,042 | 18 | 40 | 19.3 (146) |
| Columbia Basin (44) | 51.5 | 6,867 | 24 | 44.3 | 100.0 (144) |
| Steens Mountain (69) | 49 | 1,432 | 33 | 44.2 | 17.4 (169A) |
In the 2024 WAFWA range-wide status report (archived copy), ODFW's Don Whittaker wrote that "Deer are normally counted during early winter following fall migrations, usually in concentration areas at the wildlife management unit (WMU) scale." He also wrote that "As a result, mule deer are often hunted during a time frame and in a WMU with dramatically different densities." The unit figures cannot tell us why success is low in any one unit.
IVDeer and ratios
Unit estimates fell 63,874 deer from 2010 to 2024 as ratios rose
ODFW's unit estimates added up to 219,369 mule deer in 2010 and 155,495 in 2024, down 29.1%. Whittaker described the downturn after difficult winters in the 2020 WAFWA status report, writing "Following two successive difficult winters of 2016-2017 and 2017-2018 Oregon's estimated mule deer population declined precipitously". ODFW's statewide ratio climbed from 16.1 bucks per 100 does in 2010 to 25 in 2024. In 2024 Whittaker wrote that "Average buck ratios have increased in recent years and now hovers in the mid-20s." That report names no cause, and we supply none. For 36 of 44 units with at least 3 surveyed years in each period, the 2021 to 2025 average was higher than the 2010 to 2014 average.
ODFW's 2025 unit total of 113,084 includes only 38 units. In the 2025 WAFWA status report, Whittaker wrote that "New and more rigorous integrated population models have been developed for each unique herd." Those models estimate spring 2025 at 171,658, and the 2026 WAFWA status report lists 162,733 for spring 2026. Neither uses the same basis as the unit sums, so we leave the 2025 population figures out of the trend.
Swipe table to see every column
| Year | Units with an estimate | Population estimate | Bucks per 100 does |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2,010 | 49 | 219,369 | 16.1 |
| 2,011 | 49 | 220,176 | 17.1 |
| 2,012 | 49 | 210,637 | 18.5 |
| 2,013 | 49 | 226,906 | 18.3 |
| 2,014 | 49 | 231,241 | 17.8 |
| 2,015 | 49 | 229,326 | 22 |
| 2,016 | 49 | 226,775 | 20 |
| 2,017 | 48 | 195,421 | 19 |
| 2,018 | 49 | 189,822 | 17 |
| 2,019 | 49 | 171,525 | 19 |
| 2,020 | 49 | 167,992 | 20 |
| 2,021 | 48 | 163,007 | 19 |
| 2,022 | 48 | 161,412 | 25 |
| 2,023 | 49 | 155,472 | 24 |
| 2,024 | 49 | 155,495 | 25 |
| 2,025 | 38 | 113,084 | 24 |
VCounts and reports
Winter counts move in steps and hunter reports supply harvest figures
Population, ratio and harvest figures are estimates while draw results are counts from ODFW's draw reports. Population and ratio figures come from ODFW surveys and models with counts made mostly on winter range, and ODFW does not give their error by unit. A single year can bring a big swing, as Steens showed with 38 bucks per 100 does in 2024 and 18 in 2025.
We left Juniper out of every ratio comparison because ODFW listed 129 bucks per 100 does there in 2020 and 150 in 2022. ODFW's mandatory harvest reports supply success figures, and the 2024 summary carries a draft label. Those reports do not separate mule deer from whitetails. Putting a ratio beside a success rate shows only an association.
VIDifferent hunt areas
Trout Creek, Deschutes and Steens top 2026 herd ranges for buck ratios
In the 2026 report ODFW's Josh Smith and Ray Dodd wrote that "Transitions in harvest allocation and monitoring will begin for the 2026 seasons with entirely new hunt areas within herd ranges". The 2026 buck deer draw results show Trout Creek 01 drew 2.9% of resident first-choice applicants, and the fewest points that drew in the preference-point phase were 19. Steens 01 drew 16.1% and Deschutes 01 drew 34.4% of resident first-choice applicants, with the fewest points that drew in the preference-point phase at 7 and 2 respectively. ODFW's 2026 herd-range figures rank Trout Creek, Deschutes and Steens highest for three-year buck ratios at 36, 32 and 29. ODFW also rates Deschutes and Steens among the 12 of 22 herd ranges at Extreme concern.
Swipe table to see every column
| Herd range | 2026 abundance estimate | Printed range | Bucks per 100 does, 3-year average | Bucks per 100 does, 2026 | Buck objective | Concern level |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trout Creek | 1,165 | 945 to 1,391 | 36 | 37 | 25 | Very High |
| Deschutes | 5,256 | 4,577 to 6,010 | 32 | 32 | 25 | Extreme |
| Steens | 3,406 | 2,865 to 3,993 | 29 | 28 | 25 | Extreme |
| DeGarmo | 2,565 | 2,115 to 3,118 | 27 | 28 | 20 | Extreme |
| North Blues | 18,301 | 16,358 to 20,747 | 26 | 27 | 15 | High |
| Jackknife | 8,987 | 7,676 to 10,107 | 25 | 25 | 15 | Extreme |
| Northeast | 17,714 | 16,037 to 19,725 | 24 | 28 | 20 | High |
| Klamath Basin | 10,893 | 10,190 to 11,601 | 23 | 26 | 15 | Moderate |
| Mid-Columbia | 9,660 | 8,626 to 10,752 | 23 | 25 | 20 | Very High |
| Southeast | 2,085 | 1,794 to 2,425 | 23 | 22 | 15 | Extreme |
| Devils Garden | 11,451 | 10,353 to 12,596 | 22 | 23 | 15 | Very High |
| South Wallowas | 7,637 | 6,406 to 9,202 | 22 | 22 | 15 | Extreme |
| Juntura | 11,284 | 10,171 to 12,334 | 19 | 19 | 15 | Extreme |
| Painted Hills | 6,109 | 4,887 to 7,600 | 18 | 19 | 15 | Extreme |
| Poverty Basin | 310 | 176 to 634 | 18 | 19 | 20 | Extreme |
| Sage Hen | 3,794 | 3,218 to 4,463 | 18 | 18 | 15 | High |
| Fox | 18,112 | 16,177 to 20,323 | 17 | 18 | 15 | Very High |
| Keno | 2,919 | 2,440 to 3,448 | 17 | 19 | 15 | Moderate |
| Aldrich | 7,238 | 6,389 to 8,186 | 16 | 14 | 15 | Extreme |
| Elkhorn | 4,906 | 4,224 to 5,598 | 14 | 15 | 15 | Extreme |
| Crooked River | 4,543 | 3,775 to 5,434 | 13 | 14 | 15 | Extreme |
| Helix | 4,307 | 3,339 to 5,557 | 13 | 14 | 15 | High |
Our read is that hunts should be ranked by buck success and the points they take, using bucks per 100 does as a tiebreaker. Upper Deschutes and Fort Rock had low any-legal-weapon buck success in every season from 2021 to 2025 regardless of their ratios. The unit results do not transfer directly to the 2026 hunts, so consider each 2026 herd-range draw on its own.
NOTES AND SOURCES
- Source: Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, Big game population survey data (Mule Deer Population Estimates, Composition, and Over-Winter Fawn Survival 2021 - 2025, and earlier editions).
- Also: Oregon Department of Fish and Wildlife, 2025 Estimated Any Legal Weapon Buck Deer Harvest (mandatory harvest survey), with the 2021 to 2024 editions.
- Also: Western Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies, Range-wide Status of Black-tailed and Mule Deer, 2025 edition (Oregon section written by ODFW).
- Scope: Oregon Rocky Mountain mule deer: ODFW unit population estimates and buck and fawn ratios 2010 to 2025 (49 units), any-legal-weapon buck hunt harvest 2021 to 2025 (49 units), the 2025 and 2026 buck draws, and ODFW's 2026 herd-range table (22 herd ranges).
- Method: Population estimates and bucks and fawns per 100 does are ODFW survey and model values (SAMPLED), taken from the latest edition that prints each unit-year. 240 unit-year cells differ between editions and the newest is used. Unit estimates are summed and checked against ODFW's printed total for every year. Buck success is bucks killed divided by hunters, pooled over 2021 to 2025, from ODFW mandatory harvest survey estimates by hunt (SAMPLED inputs, DERIVED ratio). 296 of 296 hunt-year rows were re-found in the raw ODFW PDF text. Hunts map to units by hunt number (168A Trout Creek Mtns, 168B East Whitehorse, 143A East Biggs, 143B West Biggs). ODFW's harvest summaries print a 4+ pt column but do not define whether points are counted on one antler or both. Draw odds are resident first-choice applicants drawn divided by applicants (DERIVED) from ODFW draw reports. Rank correlations are Spearman correlations across the 46 units with both a ranked ratio and success (DERIVED).
- Limits: Population estimates and buck and fawn ratios are ODFW survey and model estimates, counted mostly on winter range. They are not harvest and carry sampling error that ODFW does not print by unit.
- Limits: Thirteen of 49 units carried the same population estimate in 2022, 2023 and 2024, so unit estimates move in steps and single-year changes should be read loosely.
- Limits: The 2025 unit total of 113,084 covers 38 units. ODFW's new herd-range models put the spring 2025 population at 171,658 and spring 2026 at 162,733. Neither 2025 figure is comparable with the 2010 to 2024 unit series.
- Limits: Buck success is per hunter from ODFW's mandatory harvest survey for any-legal-weapon buck hunts only. ODFW's 2024 summary is marked draft.
- Limits: ODFW harvest summaries do not separate mule deer from white-tailed deer, and some northeast units hold whitetails.
- Limits: Buck ratios and success are compared as associations. The numbers cannot say why a unit's success is high or low.
- Limits: From 2026 ODFW draws buck hunts by herd range, so 2021 to 2025 unit results do not map one to one onto 2026 hunts.
Fully Drawn Research is an independent data analysis desk, not affiliated with any state wildlife agency, transportation agency, mapping provider or outfitter. Fully Drawn Research is an independent data and analysis desk. This paper reports FDR's own analysis of public agency and survey data. Harvest, catch and survey figures describe what hunters and anglers reported or what agencies counted or estimated, not how many animals or fish are present, and they reflect regulations and hunter or angler choices as well as wildlife numbers.
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