Early steel loads lost more hit ducks than lead, even inside 35 yards

STEP 1 · Blind math

Lacassine No. 4 steel left a larger share of hit ducks unretrieved

Dividing lost birds by shells fired can flatter a weaker load because misses shrink the fraction even when more of the ducks you hit sail away. Bingham used unadjusted tallies from Louisiana seasons in 1980 and 1981 at Lacassine to show that trap in the Proceedings of the Annual Conference of the Southeastern Association of Fish and Wildlife Agencies. Named loads in that reanalysis were No. 6 lead and No. 4 steel.

During those seasons observers logged 8,023 shots and 6,415 misses for No. 6 lead against 8,615 shots and 7,193 misses for No. 4 steel. No. 6 lead struck 1,608 ducks with a bag of 1,242 and 366 cripples. No. 4 steel struck 1,422 ducks with a bag of 986 and 436 cripples.

Hits per shot were 0.200 on No. 6 lead and 0.165 on No. 4 steel. Cripples per hit were 0.228 on No. 6 lead and 0.307 on No. 4 steel. Bingham reported the relative increase at 34.6 percent for No. 4 steel on that per hit rate. Cripples per shot were 0.046 on No. 6 lead and 0.051 on No. 4 steel which he called 10.9 percent higher for No. 4 steel. The table also shows 19.1 percent more crippled ducks for No. 4 steel before scaling.

Observers recorded those counts for No. 6 lead and No. 4 steel at Lacassine in 1980 and 1981. Our arithmetic on the bags puts the loss near 29 ducks per 100 bagged for No. 6 lead and 44 for No. 4 steel. That pair comes from blind observers and is a different measurement from the Illinois mail survey below.

Bingham then lifted the No. 4 steel column by 26 percent so both loads would list 1,242 ducks bagged. Scaling produced a 50 percent rise in crippled ducks on No. 4 steel. The step assumes the rates hold if hunters fire more steel shells.

STEP 2 · Distance split

Inside about 35 yards No. 4 steel still lost more hits

At 32 meters and closer (about 35 yards) No. 6 lead fired 4,035 shots and struck 1,066 ducks and bagged 878 and left 188 crippled. No. 4 steel fired 4,348 shots and struck 997 ducks and bagged 728 and left 269 crippled. Cripples per hit were 0.176 for No. 6 lead and 0.270 for No. 4 steel. Bingham reported a 52.9 percent increase for No. 4 steel inside that cut in the 1980 and 1981 Louisiana counts.

Past 32 meters in those same 1980 and 1981 counts cripples per shot were 4.5 percent for No. 6 lead and 3.9 percent for No. 4 steel and the per hit loss rose 19.6 percent for No. 4 steel. Printed per hit rates on that far split were 0.328 for No. 6 lead and 0.393 for No. 4 steel. No. 4 steel connected on fewer ducks, so the per shell result looked a little better. More of the ducks it hit stayed lost.

Bingham found a significant climb in cripples per hit for No. 4 steel (P 0.0008) and a significant fall in hits per shot (P 0.0001). Cripples per shot showed no significant overall difference (P 0.109) and distance interacted with load (P 0.001). Drop the interaction and the per shot score can call these 1980 and 1981 loads equal.

STEP 3 · Two marshes

Schell-Osage scored cripples per shot and saw no load split

During the 1979 waterfowl season Humburg and colleagues tested shooters at Schell-Osage Wildlife Management Area in Missouri. The work is in the Wildlife Society Bulletin. Hunters bagged 1,967 ducks from 10,587 shots. The U.S. Geological Survey abstract reports no significant gap among four 12 gauge loads for birds bagged or birds crippled or birds missed. Those loads were buffered No. 4 lead, unbuffered No. 4 lead, No. 4 steel and No. 2 steel. Shooter effectiveness fell with distance. Distance did not change crippling rates.

Lacassine in 1980 and 1981 matched No. 6 lead with No. 4 steel and found a higher share of hit ducks crippled on the steel load. Schell-Osage in 1979 used No. 4 lead with No. 4 steel and No. 2 steel. Bingham says the Missouri study scored crippling as cripples per shot and that this rate stayed near 4 to 5 percent across loads in the two largest field studies. His Lacassine tables show that per shot rate can hold nearly still while more of the struck ducks stay lost.

STEP 4 · After 1991

Reported Illinois duck losses per 100 bagged fell in later years

The Fish and Wildlife Service dates the waterfowl lead shot phase in to the 1987 to 1988 season and the nationwide ban to 1991. Since 1 September 1991 50 CFR 20.108 has set nontoxic shot zones over all 50 states plus Puerto Rico plus the Virgin Islands plus territorial waters of the United States. The Electronic Code of Federal Regulations text was current on 10/07/2026. Coverage includes waterfowl and coots and other species in aggregate bags when seasons run together.

Section 20.21(j) limits possession while taking ducks and geese including brant and swans and coots and the other aggregate bag birds in those zones. Shells and loose muzzleloader shot must be an approved type with residual lead held to less than 1 percent. States can add limits. Check your state agency before you hunt.

The Service treats a shot type as nontoxic when migratory birds can swallow it without sickness and death. Iron (steel) and bismuth-tin and several tungsten combinations are approved and so are listed coatings. Our read is that this listing clears ingestion and does not measure the unretrieved share at your distance.

Illinois is inside the 1991 zone and the long hunter survey shows no jump in reported crippling after the nationwide date. Walberg and colleagues at the Illinois Natural History Survey count cripples in the 2022 to 2023 waterfowl hunter survey as birds knocked down and not recovered. They place crippling losses that season at 35,320 ducks and 7,378 geese. Both totals are read as indices of relative loss. Lost birds per 100 harvested come to 11.2 for ducks and 6.3 for geese.

A random sample of 5,000 buyers of the Illinois state waterfowl stamp in the prior year received the survey. Usable forms numbered 1,602 for a 33 percent response. Those replies are mail returns and not counts by an observer in a blind. A statewide rate is not the odds on your hunt Saturday.

Appendix Table F-12 tracks crippled ducks for every 100 bagged across seasons 1982 through 2022. Rates in that column are 25.2 for 1982, 38.3 for 1986, 24.4 for 1991 and 11.2 for 2022. With each season weighted once the nine rates from 1982 through 1990 average 30.2. The ten rates from 1991 through 2000 average 23.02. The ten rates from 2013 through 2022 average 13.12.

Seasons 1987 through 1990 fall inside the federal phase in and make a poor pure lead baseline. A footnote beside 1990 and 1991 says those years' cripple estimates were lowered to 92.48 to 96.48 percent of the figures first printed. Chokes and shells and season structures and the standard for calling a bird lost all moved over those decades. Published Illinois rates per 100 bagged were already high in the late 1980s and fell in the years after. The 1991 nationwide rule did not come with a step up. This mail survey index cannot prove steel reduced crippling.

STEP 5 · Other metals

These tests measured lead and steel cripples only

Both the Lacassine test and the Schell-Osage test fired lead and steel alone, so neither measured cripples from bismuth or tungsten. Treat bismuth and tungsten as approved metals whose cripple losses stay an open question until you have a study of the hull you shoot. Pattern the shell and treat a thin pattern as a yardage past your limit for any approved metal in the hull.

STEP 6 · Season log

Log every hit inside and beyond about 35 yards

Our rule for one season is two bins on every duck or goose you hit. Use one bin inside about 35 yards and one bin past it and mark each hit retrieved or lost. The yardage is the Lacassine 32 meter cut from the 1980 and 1981 No. 6 lead and No. 4 steel counts after conversion to yards. If the unretrieved share is higher past the cut then shorten your limit and pattern that load again. About 35 yards is not a safe pocket taken from that Louisiana test. Inside the cut No. 4 steel already carried more cripples per hit than No. 6 lead.

Our wounding guide covers this same denominator issue in deer studies.