Yearling Buck Travel and Forest Share Across 575 Midwest Counties

Young bucks traveled shorter distances on average after leaving their birthplace when their study areas contained more forest. The Penn State meta-analysis supporting that result found averages ranging from 11.5 miles to 23.6 miles among the four areas below 35 percent forest. For the five areas with forest shares starting at 50 percent but below 70 percent, averages ranged from 4.0 miles to 6.2 miles. Comparing those categories with 2024 land-cover data for 575 counties across six states places 443 counties, or 77.0 percent, in the category associated with longer trips. Countywide cover provides only a broad first look at conditions on your property.

Working with colleagues from the U.S. Geological Survey, Penn State and the Pennsylvania Game Commission, Eric Long radio-marked young bucks in two Pennsylvania research areas. Capture ages ranged from 7 months to 10 months, and tracking continued until the bucks were about 1.5 years old. The researchers compared those animals with published findings for 10 additional populations without seasonal migration (Long and colleagues, 2005). In this research, herd density did not predict the bucks' travel distances. Forest share likewise failed to predict departure: the 10 populations with reported dispersal rates ranged from 46 percent to 80 percent of juvenile males, with forest accounting for almost none of the variation (r²: 0.025).

Forest share did relate to distance. For the 10 areas supplying both forest percentages and mean travel distances, increasing forest corresponded to decreasing average dispersal along a straight fitted line, with r² equal to 0.94. To predict an area's mean dispersal distance, the fitted equation starts with 35.07 kilometers and subtracts the product of 48.14 kilometers and the forest fraction. That fraction equals the percentage of forest divided by 100. Converted to miles, predictions are 18.8 where forest occupies 10 percent, 11.3 where it occupies 35 percent, and 6.8 where it occupies 50 percent. The authors suggest that deer where forest is sparse may have to travel farther to reach a suitable forest patch.

Forest shares above 32 percent and below 50 percent had no measurements. The paper describes a fitted straight line rather than identifying a threshold. At the high end, that line also extends beyond the observations: its predicted distance reaches zero at a forest share of 72.9 percent, while the highest observed forest share was 70 percent.

Using the USDA Cropland Data Layer for 2024, we calculated each county's forest share by combining woody wetlands with deciduous, evergreen and mixed forest. We then assigned counties to the cover bands shown above. The 35 percent boundary comes from the study areas with forest shares of 32 percent or less: every area reporting a mean, four out of five, averaged at least 11.5 miles. Central South Dakota, the fifth area, supplied a maximum without a mean. We chose that boundary for convenience; it is not an observed threshold. Across 575 counties spanning Wisconsin, Ohio, Missouri, Kansas, Iowa and Illinois, forest shares are below 35 percent in 443 counties. Another 43 have shares starting at 35 percent but below 50 percent, 57 start at 50 percent but remain below 70 percent, and 32 reach at least 70 percent.

All counties in Iowa and Kansas fall below that boundary. Allamakee has Iowa's highest forest share, at 34.4 percent. In Illinois, 92 out of 102 counties fall below the boundary. Its forest shares stretch from Ford's 1.2 percent to Pope's 72.0, spanning the entire study table. Illinois areas account for four out of the 12 research populations: average trips measured 22.4 miles and 23.6 miles where forest shares were 2 percent and 3 percent, respectively, followed by 11.8 miles where forest occupied 20 percent and 5.3 where it occupied 55. Wisconsin shows the opposite pattern. Among its 68 counties, 26 fall below 35 percent forest, while 27 reach at least 50 percent.

For the final column, we entered each state's median county forest share into the fitted equation. Predicted distances range from Kansas's 20.9 miles and Iowa's 19.7 to Missouri's 13.0 and Wisconsin's 8.2. Each value predicts a mean trip using a relationship fitted to research areas; the cautions below define how much confidence those estimates deserve. Using the same forest shares, Forest, Not Corn orders counties across five out of these six states by deer registrations per square mile.

Yearling departure comes in two pulses: near June's fawning period, then near the rut in October and November (Diefenbach and colleagues, 2008). Researchers using GPS collars on 590 deer in Wisconsin's Iowa, Grant and Dane counties recorded median departure dates of 25 May and 22 October. Juvenile male dispersal reached 64.2 percent in that study (Gilbertson and colleagues, 2022). A greater agricultural share within a young buck's home range was associated with a higher likelihood of departure, but only in spring. According to a 2026 review examining deer contacts, 11 percent to 30 percent of yearling males remained in their mother's group after she separated to give birth. Those males departed immediately before the rut or while it was underway (Review by Wehr and colleagues).

We calculated county forest percentages from the Cropland Data Layer. Its classes outside agriculture originate in the National Land Cover Database. According to USDA, those classes' accuracy relies entirely on that database, which the agency recommends when studying cover outside agriculture (USDA classification metadata). Excluding woody wetlands increases the count below 35 percent forest from 443 counties to 459. The 2024 layer omits six out of these states' 581 counties: four are in Wisconsin, and two are in Missouri.

A countywide percentage also measures something different from the forest surrounding a deer wearing a collar. Forest occupies 45.2 percent of the Wisconsin study area, according to its researchers. For the three named counties, our land-area-weighted figure is 26.2 percent, a difference of 19.0 points. That difference illustrates how widely countywide cover can depart from cover within a research area located there. Two collar studies provide checks on the fitted relationship. Southeastern Minnesota had about 24 percent forest, and subadult males and females together averaged 12.4 miles (LaSharr and colleagues, 2025). The equation predicts 14.6 miles there. Using the Wisconsin study area's forest percentage produces a prediction of 8.3 miles, compared with its reported 3.6-mile median. When a few long journeys extend the upper tail, the mean exceeds the median, so this comparison remains inconclusive.

The fitted relationship draws on ten areas ranging in size from 12 square kilometers to 1,900 square kilometers. Long and colleagues say a median would have been preferable to a mean, but most studies supplied no median. Later research applied the equation to predict the full distribution of distances in six populations. Only a single population, northern Illinois, had an observed distribution matching the prediction. Table 1's greatest distance was 132.1 miles, recorded in South Dakota where forest occupied 1 percent. Radio-marked bucks in the paper were drawn from the two Pennsylvania areas rather than the full set of 12 populations. Their reported count differs between sections: 308 appears in the abstract, versus 286 in the methods. Our comparison uses the five areas whose forest shares start at 50 percent but stay below 70 percent; together, their mean distance is 5.0 miles.

Our county table of land cover excludes Tennessee, Kentucky, Minnesota, Michigan and Indiana.

Let the county figure guide your first look, then take a local measurement. Center a circle on your property using a five-mile radius, and estimate its forest percentage from a map. The circle contains about 203 square kilometers, fitting within the research areas' size range of 12 square kilometers to 1,900 square kilometers. Across these six states, median county area is 1,483 square kilometers, or about 7 times the circle's area. Counties exceeding the largest research area account for 23.3 percent of the total, so county figures blend conditions across more land than your circle.

Where forest occupies less than about 35 percent of that circle, expect bucks to travel farther than in more wooded country. Research areas in that cover category averaged 17.3 miles. In those studies, dispersal referred to leaving the birth range permanently. Our 35 percent boundary provides an initial screen without being a locally validated cutoff. The table's smallest mean distance was 1.9 miles, recorded where forest occupied 70 percent. Using distances before rounding, that is about 3.3 times the 0.6-mile radius a circular 640-acre property would have. Regardless of forest cover, the studies found that 20 percent to 54 percent of juvenile males remained. Passing a yearling in sparsely forested country therefore bets on the portion that stays.

Research areas with forest shares of at least 50 percent had average travel distances ranging from 1.9 miles to 6.2 miles. These studies report travel distances rather than the bucks' eventual settlement locations, so we cannot determine what proportion settles on nearby properties. The neighbors whose management could matter are those within a few miles, and reaching a written agreement takes a few phone calls. For identifying landholders within your circle, the parcel map combines property boundaries, ownership names and harvest analytics. Use these figures only as approximate planning guidance: Table 1 includes a buck that traveled 132.1 miles. Before a purchase, Buying Deer Ground explains the information county figures provide and the questions they leave unanswered.