Does the Pond on Your Map Still Have Water? Consult County Drought History Before Hanging Your Stand

The pond shown on your map may have dried up before hunting day. Weekly drought reports for its county help you decide when that water needs another look. For the reporting week that closed 13 October 2025, Illinois recorded 50 qualifying counties among its 102: severe or more intense drought covered a quarter or greater share of each county's land. The U.S. Drought Monitor calls the severe category D2. During June to August that year, the qualifying weekly count never exceeded 3. These reports cannot tell you whether your particular pond holds water. They can identify times when checking it on foot makes sense before choosing it as the reason for a stand location.

The U.S. Drought Monitor assigns categories ranging from D0, meaning abnormally dry, through D4, meaning exceptional drought. Most indicators place the severe category, D2, between the 5th and 10th percentile. Our compiled records retain the percentage of county land assigned to each category every week. Those percentages let us tally counties where D2 or a more intense category covers a quarter or greater share.

For the reporting week that closed Monday, 13 October 2025, Illinois's qualifying count was 50 out of 102. Missouri recorded 39 out of 115; Ohio recorded 29 out of 88. We selected that threshold, but the broader pattern holds at other cutoffs. In that reporting week, 59 Illinois counties contained some land classified D2, while 41 had that classification across half or more of county land. Illinois's qualifying count was 37 in the preceding week. It reached 56 in the following week, the season's peak.

For the corresponding reporting week during the preceding five years, Illinois's counts were 0, 11, 3, 2 and 0. With only six October periods in our table, we cannot determine how unusual 2025 was across a longer history.

An aerial image captures conditions on its acquisition date. According to the U.S. Geological Survey, USDA collects National Agriculture Imagery Program aerial photographs during agricultural growing seasons. A pond outlined using that imagery therefore reflects water seen on a date within the growing season. Check the image date before treating it as evidence for an October hunt. The Fish and Wildlife Service maintains the federal wetlands map and cautions that mapped features can change after the imagery is captured.

Illinois's 2025 county history shows few qualifying counties before September. Throughout June to August, the weekly tally never exceeded 3 counties with D2 or a more intense category covering a quarter or greater share of land. That peak of 3 occurred during the reporting week that closed 14 July. The tally was 2 when the week closed 8 September, then 8 on 15 September, followed by 30 on 22 September and 50 on 13 October.

Conditions can also shift in the opposite direction. For the reporting week that closed 3 July 2023, Illinois had 60 counties above the same threshold. By October's second Monday, the count had fallen to 2. A photograph from that summer would therefore align with July's county drought record rather than October's.

Other states also had numerous counties experiencing severe drought in October. Illinois's 2025 tally was below the largest state totals in our records. Kansas recorded 74 qualifying counties out of 105 in 2022; Iowa recorded 78 out of 99 in 2023. Combined totals for the six states ranged from 46 qualifying counties out of 581 in 2021 to 205 in 2023. The concentration shifted annually. Six October periods cannot establish a frequency, so we report county totals without assigning odds.

The newest map reveals another shift. For the reporting week that closed 28 September 2026, Kansas records 37 qualifying counties out of 105, Missouri records 28 out of 115, and Wisconsin records 27 out of 72. None qualify in Illinois, Iowa or Ohio. Our compiled table ends at 15 June 2026; we obtained this newer row directly through the U.S. Drought Monitor data service.

The U.S. Drought Monitor combines numerous data types and advises against drawing conclusions about specific local conditions from its classifications. Its map can, however, indicate possible drought impacts, including shortages of water. Apply that distinction to a pond. A county classified D2 signals a possible shortage, while leaving the condition of your marked pond uncertain. Its water conditions may differ from those across the county.

For hunters, the practical concern is deer movement. Drought can bring deer together near open water that remains. The University of Missouri Extension deer nutrition guide identifies surface water from ponds, streams or springs as a requirement beyond moisture supplied by food. The Illinois Department of Natural Resources' wildlife website explains that deer may congregate near remaining open water during drought. It also says those wet places attract insects capable of transmitting epizootic hemorrhagic disease. Missouri's guide identifies surface water as necessary, while Illinois's wildlife guidance describes deer gathering around it during drought. Together, those points explain why water marked during summer warrants another look in October.

Our compiled table contains 195,797 records pairing counties with weeks across 581 counties, spanning 6 January 2020 to 15 June 2026. Reporting weeks close Monday, matching the U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly cutoff. Thus, the service's map dated Tuesday, 7 October 2025 remains valid through 13 October. Category percentages accumulate: the D2 percentage also contains land classified D3 and D4. Every record follows that convention.

We checked our table against the U.S. Drought Monitor county data service using 15,106 county-week records spanning the six October periods, 1,743 records for June 2026, and 1,326 Illinois records for summer 2023. Differences never exceeded 0.01 percentage points. The service also reproduces every tally above for the 36 combinations of state and year.

These results have limits. Categories describe portions of county land, and the U.S. Drought Monitor cautions against applying them to specific local conditions. This article does not pair individual water bodies with counties. Our state table of water bodies contains 7,976 records about fishing and stocking, restricted to Iowa, Missouri and Wisconsin. Acreage is absent from every record. We therefore cannot count ponds located within a county classified D2. The June to August shading in Figure 2 approximates imagery captured during the growing season. A photograph captured in September would correspond more closely to the October county drought picture.

A pond marked on a map reflects conditions when the underlying photograph was captured. Find your county's U.S. Drought Monitor classification for the week you plan to hunt. If D2 or a more intense category covers a quarter or greater share of county land, visit the water before basing your stand location on it. Below that threshold, use the marker as a scouting lead and check for water during your initial scouting visit.

Find county information through the U.S. Drought Monitor's weekly county statistics tool. It lets you select counties as the geographic unit and view weekly area percentages. Our table's thresholds are practical guidelines; we have not tested them against measured pond levels. Their purpose is to prompt an early visit. Checking water before setting up a stand costs less than discovering an empty basin afterward. The guide on ranking map evidence explains the limits of mapped features as evidence about deer. The guide on checking a second image date explains how to identify ground changes after the original photograph.